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Fantasy Baseball: Is Alex Rodriguez A 1st Round Pick in 2011?

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I was reading the Rotographs chat with Fangraphs Brian Joura and read this Q & A about the Yankees Alex Rodriguez"

[Comment From MarinerDan]
Does A-Rod slip out of the first round next year?
Brian Joura:
I think he should

After reading the response, I checked A-Rod's stats for 2010 and saw he hit .270-.341-.506 with 30 HRs, 125 RBIs and 74 runs scored. ARod lowered his K% from 22% to 19%, but his BB% also dropped from 15% to just under 10%. His walk rate was the lowest since 1999, so that tells me pitchers may be challenging him more. I have to think that his hip injury is affecting him at the plate and robbing him of some of his power as well.

i recall either reading an article or watching a game where they said that ARod had been working with hitting coach Kevin Long on changing his swing to maintain his power while compensating for the hip injury. I think fantasy owners should lower their expectations for ARod's power numbers going forward as he may not be the 40 HR hitter we all became accustomed to in the past.

Bill James projects him to hit .284-.381-.530 with 35 HRs, 116 RBIs and 94 runs scored in 2011. Those are solid stats, but are they 1st round worthy? Here is a quick list of guys who I think will be 1st round picks in 2011:

Albert Pujols

Hanley Ramirez

Joey Votto

Miguel Cabrera

Robinson Cano

Chase Utley

Carlos Gonzalez

Evan Longoria

David Wright

Carl Crawford

Josh Hamilton

Troy Tulowitzki

Now some may want to select ARod before Troy Tulowitzki, but shortstop is so thin, I have to think he is a first round pick in 2011. Others may think that Josh Hamilton's absolutely crazy .390 BABIP won't be duplicated and not make him a 1st round pick in 2011. Plus he is injury prone, so I could see not picking him in the first round. Some others may feel Roy Halladay is too good not to pass up in the first round as well. Halladay is probably the best pitcher in baseball, he pitches for a very good team, and won 21 games in 2010.

Do Fake Teamers think ARod will fall out of the first round in 2011?