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Here is a chart, via Fangaphs, that lists some starting pitchers who underperformed their FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, and xFIP, which attempts to normalize home runs in FIP. xFIP can be used to predict a pitcher's future performance.
Name
Team
K/9
BB/9
K/BB
HR/9
AVG
WHIP
BABIP
LOB%
ERA
FIP
E-F
xFIP
Change page: < 1 2 3 > | Displaying page 1 of 3, items 1 to 35 of 92.
Jason Hammel
Rockies
7.14
2.38
3.00
0.91
.286
1.40
.337
68.6 %
4.81
3.70
1.11
3.81
Francisco Liriano
Twins
9.44
2.72
3.47
0.42
.254
1.26
.340
73.1 %
3.62
2.66
0.96
3.06
James Shields
Rays
8.28
2.26
3.67
1.50
.300
1.46
.354
68.4 %
5.18
4.24
0.94
3.72
Paul Maholm
Pirates
4.95
3.01
1.65
0.73
.304
1.56
.336
64.8 %
5.10
4.18
0.92
4.56
Kyle Davies
Royals
6.17
3.92
1.58
0.98
.285
1.56
.322
66.9 %
5.34
4.46
0.88
4.93
Zack Greinke
Royals
7.40
2.25
3.29
0.74
.261
1.25
.314
65.3 %
4.17
3.34
0.83
3.76
Yovani Gallardo
Brewers
9.73
3.65
2.67
0.58
.254
1.37
.340
69.8 %
3.84
3.02
0.82
3.42
Chris Narveson
Brewers
7.35
3.17
2.32
1.13
.267
1.38
.310
67.8 %
4.99
4.22
0.77
4.33
Justin Masterson
Indians
7.00
3.65
1.92
0.70
.280
1.50
.332
66.6 %
4.70
3.93
0.77
3.98
Jeremy Bonderman
Tigers
5.89
3.16
1.87
1.32
.279
1.44
.304
64.9 %
5.53
4.90
0.63
4.74
Gavin Floyd
White Sox
7.25
2.79
2.60
0.67
.274
1.37
.329
70.3 %
4.08
3.46
0.62
3.83
Edwin Jackson
- - -
7.78
3.35
2.32
0.90
.266
1.39
.320
69.6 %
4.47
3.86
0.61
3.85
Rick Porcello
Tigers
4.65
2.10
2.21
1.00
.291
1.39
.312
65.9 %
4.92
4.31
0.61
4.40
Cliff Lee
- - -
7.84
0.76
10.28
0.68
.246
1.00
.302
67.9 %
3.18
2.58
0.59
3.23
John Lackey
Red Sox
6.53
3.01
2.17
0.75
.278
1.42
.323
69.3 %
4.40
3.85
0.55
4.32
Scott Baker
Twins
7.82
2.27
3.44
1.22
.279
1.34
.329
73.0 %
4.49
3.96
0.53
4.02
Chad Billingsley
Dodgers
8.03
3.24
2.48
0.38
.246
1.28
.313
71.0 %
3.57
3.07
0.50
3.81
Joe Blanton
Phillies
6.87
2.20
3.12
1.38
.294
1.42
.331
69.1 %
4.82
4.34
0.48
4.06
Doug Fister
Mariners
4.89
1.68
2.91
0.68
.279
1.28
.309
67.7 %
4.11
3.65
0.46
4.27
A.J. Burnett
Yankees
6.99
3.76
1.86
1.21
.279
1.51
.319
68.8 %
5.26
4.83
0.43
4.6
One guy that I will stay away from no matter what the list tells me is Paul Maholm. I just don't trust him, and I am beginning to wonder if the Pirates feel the same way about him.
I drafted Jason Hammel in my big money, non keeper league, and he pitched pretty well after his DL stint back in May.
As a Dodgers fan, I hope Chad Billingsley has turned the corner as a pitcher. I think 2011 will be a very important year for him, and he could have a breakout-type season after the solid second half he had. Billz had a second half ERA of 3.00 with a WHIP of 1.17, but had only 5 wins to show for it.
Its amazing to think that Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano could pitch better in 2011 than they did in 2010. Lee is probably a top 5-6 starting pitcher in 2011 fantasy drafts. Liriano is a future ace, if he is not one already. His LOB% of 73% and BABIP of .340 should come down a bit in 2011, resulting in a lower ERA and WHIP.
Not all of these pitchers will be sleepers, but guys like Hammel, Chris Narveson and Joe Blanton could surprise in 2011. Every year, there are several starting pitchers who experience a breakout season, and 2011 will be no different.