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Can He Repeat: Shaun Marcum

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Shaun Marcum was slotted into the starting rotation for the Blue Jays after missing the entirety of the 2009 season due to Tommy John surgery. He had been coming off a very solid 2008 season before the surgery, but it remained to be seen if he would be able to repeat the success after the surgery.

2010 Performance

13 wins, 3.64 ERA, 195 1/3 innings pitched, 165 strikeouts, 43 walks, 1.14 WHIP

ERA+ of 114, FIP of 3.74, xFIP of 3.90

Rankings

My Original Rank: Not Ranked in Top 75 starting pitchers
ESPN's Preseason Rank: 83

Yahoo's Final Rank: 27
ESPN's Player Rater Rank: 27

He clearly had a very solid season, but can he repeat it in 2011?

My Thoughts

Wins - Marcum received a reasonable amount of run support (4.5 per start) in 2010, and the team should most likely be of a similar quality to the 2010 version next year. I think he should be able to match his win total of 13 next year, and would be a candidate to get upward of 15 potentially.

ERA - His ERA of 3.64 nearly matches his FIP of 3.74, and is also extremely close to his xFIP of 3.90. His line drive % was actually up 1% from 2008, and his ground ball % was down 5% as well. I think there is actually a chance he could lower his ERA next year if he returns to that performance from 2008 with regard to hit location, and think he's very likely to be right around 3.60-3.75 in ERA for next year, despite pitching in the AL East.

Strikeouts - His K/9 of 7.60 last season was above his career average of 7.28, but not so much that I would be inclined to believe it as a fluke. I think he could definitely repeat the performance in this category.

WHIP - He actually lowered his walk rate by a full walk from 2008 to 2010, down to just under 2 per 9 innings. His WHIP was practically the same in 2008 as 2010 (1.16 vs 1.14), and his BABIP of .289 was similar to his career numbers. He could see some slight regression in WHIP, but I don't think he'll necessarily go upward of 1.20 total.

Conclusions

The numbers lead me to believe that Marcum will be a great candidate to repeat his performance in 2011, and I think that he should still end up somewhere right around the 30 mark in terms of rankings. It seems like 14 wins, 3.70 ERA, 170 strikeouts, 50 walks, and a 1.17 WHIP are all very attainable for him.