David Garrard - No one is a better example of Dr. Jekly and Mr Hyde in then Garrard. In Jaguars victories this season Garrard has a 133.QB Rating while throwing eight touchdowns compared to one interception. When the Jaguars lose,he’s as fantasy relevant as Ryan Leaf once was. The Titans come into Jacksonville on Monday night sporting the 27th best passing defense in the league, coming off a game where Tony Romo lit them up for 406 yards. While Garrard won’t finish with 400 plus yards, 300 total yards between running and passing should get the job done on Monday Night.
Ryan Torian – Sometimes your starters are based on the match up, so Torian against the Colts is money in the bank. The Indianapolis defense is struggling mightily, as offenses are averaging 140 yards on the ground. Torian struggled last week, but Green Bay has an elite front seven, so bouncing back is likely, especially with a game plan of pounding the rock. The Redskins will likely control the clock keeping Payton Manning on the sidelines. He should post anywhere from 70-90 rushing yards with 30-50 receiving yards with a touchdown to boot.
Johhny Knox – The last two weeks Knox disappeared with Jay Cutler concussed along with Todd Collins starting vs. the Panthers the Bears passing game was non-existent. With Cutler back in the lineup and a Seahawks defense ranking 31st vs. the pass, Cutler and Knox should rekindle their romance from week one. When it comes to spreading the field, Knox is a top 10 receiver; his speed and elusiveness making him a tough cover even for elite cornerbacks. Knox averages over 20 yards a catch, so look for Knox to go deep on Sunday.
Tony Moeaki - I wrote about Moeaki heading into the Chiefs bye week as someone to stash away, so hopefully everyone listened. Moeaki is the only reliable receiver in the Chiefs passing game, which is steadily improving. Going against the Texans is a tight ends dream; Houston has allowed double digit catches to the tight end in three of the last five games. Moeaki is a top five tight end this week, meaning Aaron Hernandez, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez should all take a seat next to this rookie.
New Orleans Saints – Known for a passing arsenal that never quits, the Saints have quietly become an elite defensive team. Last week vs. the Cardinals the defense didn’t allow any touchdowns, holding Arizona under 200 yards. This week’s opponent the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come in riding high, but with Cadillac Williams averaging 2.6 yards per carry, and the Saints having the leagues 7th best pass defense, it’s a bad match up for the inexperienced Josh Freedman.
Tom Brady – Every week I to go against one sure fired stud and this week it’s Brady. While I do believe the loss of Randy Moss hurt’s his value, the Ravens defense is why I am worried. In the first round of last year’s playoffs Baltimore pressured Brady all afternoon, holding him to 154 passing yards on 42 attempts. The defensive front of the Ravens overpowered the Patriots offensive line and the personnel for both teams haven’t change since that January game. The Patriots offensive line will be exposed on Sunday, and unfortunately for Brady he will be under center.
Peyton Hillis – Hillis has been the bright spot in terms of fantasy for the Browns this season. His 350 rushing yards and four touchdowns have made him a must start in recent weeks. That trend will likely continue, but when you’re playing against the Steelers the bench is where you belong. Pittsburg is allowing a league low 62.3 rushing yards per game, holding the league’s best back Chris Johnson to 34 rushing yards in their week two matchup. I’m a firm believer in Hillis, I just believe in the Steel Curtain a little bit more.
Santana Moss –With Washington keeping the ball on the ground, Moss falls out of my top 25 receivers for this week. While I believe Torian is the focal point of the Redskins game plan, the Colts secondary has stopped opposing team’s number one receivers all season. The Indianapolis defense held Andre Johnson, Steve Smith (NYG), Mike Sims-Walker, and Dwayne Bowe to seven catches and 101 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. Going off this season’s short history, Moss is likely to be shutdown without hitting the end zone.
Kellen Winslow – With the Buccaneers passing game slowly developing, it’s been shocking that Winslow has been on the outside looking in. Mike Williams has emerged as the number one target for Josh Freeman, while Winslow has played second fiddle. His 17 catches are alarming, and going against the emerging Saint secondary, I would leave Winslow on my bench and start John Carlson or Heath Miller instead.
New York Jets – While the Jets are arguably the best defense in the league, playing on Monday night and flying to Denver for a Sunday afternoon game concerns me. While the Broncos struggle running the ball, Denver is an elite passing team averaging 333 yard through the air. Kyle Orton has rejuvenated the careers of Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney , and with a banged up Jets secondary Orton will throw the ball between 35-40 times. This has trap game for the Jets written all over it, so a spot defense such as the Eagles or the Colts is a play that I would make.