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Fantasy Baseball: Power Scarcity In 2011?

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After reading and commenting on Jason's article on Twins outfielder Delmon Young, I took a look at the top power hitters over the last 5 years over at Fangraphs, and was surprised with my discovery. 

2006-34 hitters with 30+ HRs, 40 hitters with 20-29 HRs, 38 hitters with 100+ RBIs

2007-25 hitters with 30+ HRs, 50 hitters with 20-29 HRs, 33 hitters with 100+ RBIs

2008-28 hitters with 30+ HRs, 52 hitters with 20-29 HRs, 28 hitters with 100+ RBIs

2009-30 hitters with 30+ HRs, 45 hitters with 20-29 HRs, 28 hitters with 100+ RBIs

2010-18 hitters with 30+ HRs, 51 hitters with 20-29 HRs, 25 hitters with 100+ RBIs

So, in 5 years, the number of hitters with 30+ HRs has been almost cut in half, and the number of guys with 100+ RBIs has dropped by about 33%. In the last two years, the number of hitters with 20+ HRs has dropped from 80 to 69, or about a 12% drop. 

As a result, one would think that pitchers are gaining an advantage. Let's take a look:

2006-6 pitchers with 200+ Ks, 2 pitchers with ERA under 3.00

2007-8 pitchers with 200+ Ks. 1 pitcher with ERA under 3.00

2008-10 pitchers with 200+ Ks, 8 pitchers with ERA under 3.00

2009-10 pitchers with 200+ Ks, 11 pitchers with ERA under 3.00

2010-15 pitchers with 200+ Ks, 15 pitchers with ERA under 3.00

So, fantasy owners can feel comfortable drafting power early and waiting to draft their staff ace till the 3rd or 4th round in 2011 fantasy drafts.