I was reading Keith Law's ESPN chat this afternoon and had to agree with his response below:
Greinke's ERA is phenomenal, but he only has 13 W's. Mo hasn't given up a run since April in many more pressure situations.
Keith Law(1:24 PM)
You have officially failed this chat. Report to Remedial Baseball immediately. First lesson: Why Wins are the worst measure of a starter's performance.
After watching the Giants Tim Lincecum pitch a gem tonight against Philadelphia and not get a win is ridiculous. I've watched the Dodgers Randy Wolf and his low 3 ERA pitch well all season but he only has 8 wins. Same for Clayton Kershaw with the Dodgers. Yet all three of these pitchers have pitched great this season.
Wins as a category in roto/fantasy baseball is probably the hardest category to predict. And as KLaw states above it does not give an accurate measure of how well as pitcher has pitched.
So what category should replace wins? How about K/9 or K/BB ratio?? How about quality starts? A pitcher can put up wonderful pitching stats yet not earn a win, but still get credit for a quality start.
To give you an example, since the All Star break, Lincecum has had 10 starts, 8 quality starts, and only 3 wins to show for it. He has an ERA around 2.30 and a WHIP under 1, and only 3 wins.
Kershaw has had 7 quality starts in his 10 starts from the ASB, an ERA OF 2.40 and a WHIP around 1.20, and only 2 wins to show for his performance. Wins do not give an accurate picture of how well a pitcher has pitched.
On the other side of the ledger, you have the Brewers Manny Parra. Since the ASB, he has started 11 games, with 7 wins and 2 quality starts, an ERA around 6.40 and a WHIP around 2.00.
Parra is the perfect reason why wins should not be a roto/fantasy category.