When analyzing starting pitchers sometimes looking at previous year stats is not a good predictor of how a pitcher will pitch in the coming year. So I decided to look at a pitcher's 3 year average starting with Quality Starts.
Let's take a look:
Player | INN | GS | QS | W | K | BBI | ERA | WHIP |
Santana, Johan SP NYM | 229 | 33.7 | 24 | 17 | 229 | 54 | 2.87 | 1.07 |
Webb, Brandon SP ARI | 233 | 33.7 | 23 | 19 | 185 | 62 | 3.13 | 1.17 |
Haren, Dan SP ARI | 221 | 33.7 | 23 | 15 | 191 | 47 | 3.51 | 1.18 |
Oswalt, Roy SP HOU | 214 | 32 | 23 | 15 | 162 | 48 | 3.24 | 1.22 |
Lincecum, Tim SP SF | 187 | 28.5 | 21 | 12 | 208 | 74 | 3.18 | 1.21 |
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN | 217 | 34.3 | 21 | 13 | 168 | 65 | 4.06 | 1.33 |
Lowe, Derek SP ATL | 209 | 33.3 | 20 | 14 | 139 | 53 | 3.57 | 1.22 |
Lilly, Ted SP CHC | 198 | 33.3 | 20 | 16 | 173 | 67 | 4.05 | 1.26 |
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC | 206 | 32.3 | 19 | 16 | 172 | 96 | 3.75 | 1.31 |
Cain, Matt SP SF | 203 | 32.3 | 19 | 9 | 176 | 86 | 3.86 | 1.31 |
Moyer, Jamie SP PHI | 202 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 121 | 60 | 4.36 | 1.36 |
Garland, Jon SP LA | 205 | 32 | 19 | 14 | 100 | 52 | 4.56 | 1.39 |
Harang, Aaron SP CIN | 217 | 32.7 | 18 | 13 | 196 | 53 | 4.03 | 1.26 |
Kuroda, Hiroki SP LA | 183 | 31 | 18 | 9 | 116 | 42 | 3.73 | 1.22 |
Hudson, Tim SP ATL | 195 | 30.3 | 18 | 13 | 119 | 57 | 3.88 | 1.29 |
Zito, Barry SP SF | 199 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 134 | 95 | 4.47 | 1.44 |
Hamels, Cole SP PHI | 181 | 28 | 17 | 13 | 173 | 48 | 3.43 | 1.14 |
Smoltz, John SP STL | 155 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 148 | 37 | 3.24 | 1.18 |
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL | 209 | 32.3 | 17 | 13 | 199 | 56 | 4.39 | 1.25 |
Blanton, Joe SP PHI | 207 | 32.7 | 17 | 13 | 119 | 55 | 4.47 | 1.38 |
It is no surprise that Johan Santana is at the top of this list. Two names that are surprising to me are Jon Garland and Jamie Moyer. If it wasn't for their ERA and WHIP, that have average 19 quality starts and 14 wins over the last 3 years...not bad.
Another surprising name is Bronson Arroyo who has averaged 21 quality starts and 13 wins over the last 3 years. His ERA and WHIP are respectable as well. He may be someone you can pick in the later rounds of most drafts in 2010.
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