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Who Gets Drafted First in 2010: Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn??

The Phillies Ryan Howard is usually one of the first 3 first baseman selected in NL-Only league drafts due to his power, the ballpark he plays in, and the lineup he hits in. Adam Dunn, on the other hand is probably one of the top 10 outfielders selected, mainly due to his power, as his average has been a category killer in the past.

This year, Howard is on pace to hit 40 HRs and drive in 124. Dunn, while hitting in a bad Nationals lineup has started to hit for a higher average this year. He is on pace to hit 43 HRs and drive in 121. Here are their comparative stats for 2009 to date:

Player AB R H HR RBI BB KO SB BA OBP SLG Value
Dunn, Adam LF WAS 398 60 112 31 86 89 131 0 0.281 0.412 0.573 33
Howard, Ryan 1B PHI 436 71 115 28 87 54 140 5 0.264 0.347 0.530 36

The value is what CBS Sportsline assigns to each.

Howard, coming into the 2009 season, has average 51 HRs and 140+ RBI over his first 3 full seasons in the majors, so some would look at 2009 as a disappointing season. Meanwhile, Dunn will hit 40 HRs for the 6th consecutive year in 2009. The boost in average has increased his value in all leagues this year.

Howard's slugging percentage has dropped each of the last 3 seasons from .659 in 2006, .584 in 2007, .543 in 2008, and is sitting at .530 this year. Is his drop in HRs this season a trend that will continue?

So, who would you rather have?