HR/F With BABIP 2004-09: Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres has hit HRs like no one expected given his home ballpark.   The key stat is an outrageous 40.1% HR-to-Flyball rate.  Over the previous five seasons, the highest HR/F was Ryan Howard's 2006 38.3%.  He hit 56 HRs that season.

I don't know if Gonzalez can keep up his HR/F rate or something north of 30% given just five players had accomplished a 30+% HR/F in the 2004 to 2008 time frame  (Howard, Jack Cust twice, Barry Bonds and Travis Hafner).  I can see that AGonz's current BABIP of .258 would rank as the worst amongst the Top 100 HR/F though.

Unrelated to Gonzalez, I'd like to note that the highest HR/F rates generally appear to be flukes.  There are just a few players who consistently maintain these elite rates, so behave accordingly. 

FWIW, I think we should consider HR/F a durable skill if it occurs in back-to-back seasons including 2009.  Welcome to the statisitical significance of a sample size of two Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez!