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HR/F With BABIP 2004-09: Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres has hit HRs like no one expected given his home ballpark.   The key stat is an outrageous 40.1% HR-to-Flyball rate.  Over the previous five seasons, the highest HR/F was Ryan Howard's 2006 38.3%.  He hit 56 HRs that season.

I don't know if Gonzalez can keep up his HR/F rate or something north of 30% given just five players had accomplished a 30+% HR/F in the 2004 to 2008 time frame  (Howard, Jack Cust twice, Barry Bonds and Travis Hafner).  I can see that AGonz's current BABIP of .258 would rank as the worst amongst the Top 100 HR/F though.

Unrelated to Gonzalez, I'd like to note that the highest HR/F rates generally appear to be flukes.  There are just a few players who consistently maintain these elite rates, so behave accordingly. 

FWIW, I think we should consider HR/F a durable skill if it occurs in back-to-back seasons including 2009.  Welcome to the statisitical significance of a sample size of two Evan Longoria and Adrian Gonzalez!

Slugger 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Adam Dunn
HR/F 0.235 0.209 0.216 0.225 0.244
BA/BIP 0.321 0.279 0.276 0.305 0.292
Adam Jones
HR/F 0.22
BA/BIP 0.386
Adam LaRoche
HR/F 0.216
BA/BIP 0.319
Adrian Beltre
HR/F 0.224
BA/BIP 0.325
Adrian Gonzalez
HR/F 0.23 0.401
BA/BIP 0.308 0.258
Albert Pujols
HR/F 0.213 0.216 0.225 0.22 0.241
BA/BIP 0.298 0.316 0.292 0.34 0.305
Alex Rodriguez
HR/F 0.25 0.202 0.267 0.214
BA/BIP 0.347 0.326 0.309 0.328
Alfonso Soriano
HR/F 0.194
BA/BIP 0.3
Andruw Jones
HR/F 0.255 0.224
BA/BIP 0.24 0.264
B.J. Upton
HR/F 0.195
BA/BIP 0.393
Barry Bonds
HR/F 0.328
BA/BIP 0.31
Brandon Inge
HR/F 0.209
BA/BIP 0.325
Carlos Beltran
HR/F 0.22
BA/BIP 0.263
Carlos Delgado
HR/F 0.196 0.236 0.238 0.243
BA/BIP 0.283 0.332 0.269 0.279
Carlos Pena
HR/F 0.193 0.287 0.23
BA/BIP 0.284 0.297 0.25
Chipper Jones
HR/F 0.205
BA/BIP 0.246
Chris Davis
HR/F 0.24
BA/BIP 0.271
Craig A Wilson
HR/F 0.216
BA/BIP 0.325
David Ortiz
HR/F 0.207 0.222 0.266
BA/BIP 0.322 0.303 0.27
Derrek Lee
HR/F 0.219
BA/BIP 0.343
Evan Longoria
HR/F 0.194 0.2
BA/BIP 0.309 0.369
Hanley Ramirez
HR/F 0.2
BA/BIP 0.329
J.D. Drew
HR/F 0.203
BA/BIP 0.34
Jack Cust
HR/F 0.337 0.31
BA/BIP 0.355 0.306
Jacque Jones
HR/F 0.193 0.226 0.241
BA/BIP 0.282 0.279 0.319
Jason Bay
HR/F 0.196 0.234
BA/BIP 0.33 0.295
Jason Giambi
HR/F 0.213 0.2
BA/BIP 0.292 0.245
Jason Varitek
HR/F 0.205
BA/BIP 0.329
Jermaine Dye
HR/F 0.233 0.205
BA/BIP 0.328 0.29
Jhonny Peralta
HR/F 0.196
BA/BIP 0.346
Jim Edmonds
HR/F 0.277 0.2
BA/BIP 0.344 0.31
Jim Thome
HR/F 0.226 0.255 0.272 0.199 0.219
BA/BIP 0.298 0.321 0.316 0.273 0.3
Justin Upton
HR/F 0.195
BA/BIP 0.397
Justin Morneau
HR/F 0.211
BA/BIP 0.354
Kevin Youkilis
HR/F 0.202
BA/BIP 0.432
Lance Berkman
HR/F 0.24 0.204
BA/BIP 0.316 0.3
Manny Ramirez
HR/F 0.232 0.279 0.239
BA/BIP 0.324 0.295 0.341
Mark Reynolds
HR/F 0.248
BA/BIP 0.352
Mark Teixeira
HR/F 0.199 0.193 0.207
BA/BIP 0.293 0.315 0.273
Michael Cuddyer
HR/F 0.211
BA/BIP 0.302
Miguel Cabrera
HR/F 0.219 0.195
BA/BIP 0.335 0.358
Mike Napoli
HR/F 0.208
BA/BIP 0.306
Mike Jacobs
HR/F 0.194
BA/BIP 0.26
Milton Bradley
HR/F 0.203
BA/BIP 0.388
Nelson Cruz
HR/F 0.237
BA/BIP 0.313
Prince Fielder
HR/F 0.239 0.204
BA/BIP 0.283 0.32
Raul Ibanez
HR/F 0.246
BA/BIP 0.318
Richie Sexson
HR/F 0.25 0.2
BA/BIP 0.304 0.3
Russell Branyan
HR/F 0.219
BA/BIP 0.39
Ryan Braun
HR/F 0.206
BA/BIP 0.357
Ryan Howard
HR/F 0.383 0.284 0.292 0.253
BA/BIP 0.356 0.328 0.285 0.302
Ryan Ludwick
HR/F 0.212
BA/BIP 0.342
Sammy Sosa
HR/F 0.245
BA/BIP 0.275
Torii Hunter
HR/F 0.219
BA/BIP 0.324
Travis Hafner
HR/F 0.268 0.307
BA/BIP 0.344 0.323
Vladimir Guerrero
HR/F 0.198
BA/BIP 0.329