Fantasy Chat Stew 05/16/2009

 A lot of times, a player pops-up in chat after chat that I hadn't given much serious thought to.  This week that player was Tampa Bay Rays' LHP Scott Kazmir.  Ricky Nolasco also makes several appearances.  Addtionally, Jayson Stark chimes in with the beginning of the MLB trade rumors season with speculation on San Diego Padres SP Jake Peavy and Oakland A's OF Matt Holliday.

And for those looking to deride Winger, here is the late '80s hair metal classic "Seventeen".  It sounds a lot better with 20 years of distance.

Marlboro, NJ: Last year, I spent decent dollars to acquire Victor Martinez. During the first few weeks of the season he had a nice batting average and showed no power. I listened to the advice that I should not panic and hold on to him. A few more weeks went by and his batting average collapsed and he continued to show no power. I contimued to listen to the advice that I should not panic and I should hold on to him. Eventually he was put on the DL and I got virtually no production from him for the whole year. I get the feeling I am reliving that experience this year with Magglio Ordonez. Once again, I am getting advice to not to panic and to hold on to him. Do you agree or should I try and get something for him while there are still people out there that think he is a buy low opportunity?
 
Steve Gardner: Unlike V-Mart last season, there's no indication that Magglio is hurt. Hey, he even hit his first double of the season yesterday! I don't think you'll get anything of value for him right now. If you really want to sell him, wait until he has a couple decent games in a row. 

carlos (bx,ny): Should I try to trade away Joba while his ERA seems decent because I'm concerned that his high WHIP may portend bad things for the future. Or is the high WHIP just a product of those horribly bad first innings from his recent starts and not an indication of bad things to come? Thanks, Tristan.

Tristan H. Cockcroft: As a guy who closely follows Joba Chamberlain, let me point out that he has historically been a stronger pitcher with runners on than the bases empty. I know it seems silly to think pitchers can buckle down under pressure, but for some bizarre reason Joba seems OK with it. So when I see the WHIP he has I don't totally panic. It's health, and only health, that really worries me with him in the long haul. Regarding trading him, it's all a matter of what you get offered. If you're getting top-25 starter value, or close to it, I don't think you're making an unwise decision. But I sure wouldn't sell low, or make a panic move.

Greg (Boston): Buster, What do you think about the Rays' struggling pitching? Is it something that will work itself out over the season, or do they need to make a move (not including bringing up Price)?

Buster Olney: reg: Kazmir is the guy who would worry me. He struggled at the end of last season, struggled in the post-season, and he's struggling again. I wonder if he'll ever have the same slider/fastball combo again. That all said: I think the Rays are about to take off (and they've won 7 of their last 11).

Tom (St. Pete): Cameron Maybin sent down to AAA. Will have any fantasy relevance later this season? How about 2010?

AJ Mass: He'll probably be back in a month or so, but I think he's proving to be another of those Quad-A fantasy team killers.

Rod (NJ): Kazmir's stats show more signs for worry than Becketts or Lesters. Kazmir has a 30 to 21 K:BB ratio, whereas Beckett is 41:20 and Lester is 49:13.

Rob Neyer: Exactly. Thanks.

Concerned Clevelend Man: WHY WOULD WE CALL UP LAPORTA TO BENCH HIM! ANY WAY WE CAN GET THAT YEAR OF ARBITRATION BACK? OR ARE WE STUCK? UGH

Brendan Roberts: And why are we YELLING?! Ha, ha. I'm not quite sure why LaPorta has only 13 at-bats or something like that, but the more I keep thinking about it, maybe throwing him into the fire wasn't smart either. Maybe this is a true cup of coffee to show him what he needs to work on, then send him back down to work on him. That's all I can figure, and why I have doubts as to whether he'll really any mixed value this season.

Goshen,NY: Hey Ron. David Ortiz doing nothing. Still worth hanging on to?
 
Ron Shandler: Depends upon the alternatives. But it is clear his wrist is still an issue, so I would not be expecting a huge turnaround. Like my earlier answer, there is likely still a market for him, so I would see what you could get. Sell the fact that "he simply can't be this bad." 50-70 cents on the dollar might be worth taking at this point.

Candogga (Bruins Nation): I need some SP help! Am I crazy if I deal Kinsler for a top SP if I have Weeks on my bench?

Tristan H. Cockcroft : Sure, but be aware that Ian Kinsler is a top-25 player overall, so you have to set your sights high. Everyone has Jake Peavy ranked a top-10 starting pitcher, but I wouldn't even take Peavy straight up for Kinsler.

Todd (Philly): In a keeper league, who's the better prospect pickup: Kyle Blanks or Nolan Reimold?

Eric Karabell : I think it's Reimold, easily. Blanks is a huge guy with power, but he has to learn to play the outfield, which normally takes time, and he'll strike out a ton and hit for a low average. Reimold isn't gonna be a superstar, but there's good all-around upside there. And opportunity is coming really soon.

Andrew (Nashville): Another big night for Reimold at Norfolk. Where do you see his ceiling -- .270/.350/.475?

Keith Law: Might be more like .375/.450 than .350/.475. Really like him, but his ceiling is probably a 55 rather than a 60.

Eric (NYC): Obviously it's not an enormous sample, but what do you think of Jesus Montero's drastic offensive splits as a catcher and a DH? As a catcher, he has a .599 OPS, while as a DH, it is a ridiculous 1.299. Not a huge sample size, but the trend was similar last year. Should these splits be reason for the Yankees to move Montero off of catcher? Also, if one views Montero as a DH/1b long term, would it be legitimate to disregard his mediocre production as a catcher when evaluating him?

Ben Badler: That's a very, very small sample size, and I can't imagine the Yankees would make a mistake based on that type of misleading evidence. It's like day/night splits or saying you should bench him on Tuesdays because he hasn't hit well on Tuesday games so far.

Roger (NM): Magglio has been terrible. Should I drop him for Mark Teahen?

AJ Mass: Indeed, and the rumors of an outright waiver have been floating around. Insane! I don't think I'm cutting him just yet personally, and Teahen isn't a long term answer... but I'd certainyl shop him on spec that he ends up in a different uniform and gets his groove back some.

Drew, Los Angeles: Two question, Verlander looks great but he sure has been throwing a lot of pitches lately, should I worry? Also should I be dropping chris young (pitcher) in a shallow 10 team league? My staff is currently meche, verlander, kazmir, webb, peavy, and liriano

Jason Grey : I wouldn't worry about Verlander, but as I mentioned last week in chat, I am getting worried about Kazmir. If your league allows trading, I might explore that first. If not, then I don;t have a problem dropping Young in a 10-team format.

Jake (Seattle): Hey, Will. Thanks for the chat. I hate to ask, but do we know that B.J. Upton is physically okay? He's seeing crazy amounts of fastballs and can't seem to catch up to 92 down the middle. Is this part of the expected recovery period? I feel like he's had enough at bats that we can't use 'extended spring training' as an excuse any longer.

Will Carroll: I do think his bat looks slow and that the shoulder is the easy excuse. Thing is, Hanley Ramirez didn't have this problem. Was Upton's damage/surgery more extensive? Possible. Is he just a slower healer? Possible. I don't think Steve Phillips is right that he's a fluke.

Mike (DC): Any word on Adam Jones' hammy? I need to set my lineup for this weekend. Will he play?

Stephania Bell : Mike: Now ord yet. I am a little concerned b/c this is the same hamstring that gave him trouble a month ago and caused him to miss a couple games. Same leg just a few weeks later tells me it's hanging around just below the surface and that he may be headed for a more significant injury if he doesn't rest it enough this time around.

Jason(Columbus, OH): Jayson, who is the biggest name to get moved before this year's July 31st trade deadline? Jake Peavy? Cliff Lee? Matt Holliday? All of the above? Thanks.

Jayson Stark: I think Peavy and Holliday look like the best bets to me right now. The Padres have won four of their last 29 games. They have a $43M payroll. And Peavy will make $15M next year. You can read more about this in this week's Rumblings column. And the A's don't look like they're going to contend. So unless they have a big turnaround in the next 4-6 weeks, I'm sure you'll see Billy Beane move aggressively to trade Holliday. Cliff Lee is a tougher call because the Indians hold an option on him for next year. So he's not quite a parallel to CC Sabathia last year.