I know the season is young, and I know over-reacting to any one bad start makes no statistical sense. All that said, I can't help thinking some of the bad starts from this season are the beginnings of a bad overall season.
This tickled my memory about something I read about in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. In it, he states that 74% of the pitchers who earn $10 less than their pre-season projections for the year also struggled in April. 56% of the hitters were so identifable.
"...Those who finished April at the bottom of the roto rankings were more likely to continue struggling, especially pitchers. In fact, of those who finished April with a value under -$10, 91% finished the season in the red."
With ten days left in April, there is plenty of time for pitchers to crawl above the -$10 mark. According to Rototimes' Player Evaluator for 12-team standard mixed leagues, these are some of the notable pitching luminaries to watch. Keep in mind it is with any single one of these pitchers that small sample sizes must be remembered. If John Maine pitches eight shutout innings, he will fall off this list.
Not so likely for Chien-Ming Wang, though.
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | WHIP | SO | $$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chien-Ming Wang | NYY | 6 | 34.5 | 4.833 | 2 | -50.81 |
| Rafael Perez | CLE | 7 | 16.71 | 2.714 | 2 | -28.51 |
| Aaron Cook | COL | 12.3 | 10.22 | 2.108 | 6 | -27.01 |
| Cole Hamels | PHI | 9.7 | 11.17 | 2.172 | 5 | -24.1 |
| Scott Olsen | WAS | 15 | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | -24 |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | BOS | 6.3 | 12.79 | 3 | 5 | -22.48 |
| Carl Pavano | CLE | 13 | 9.69 | 1.692 | 13 | -19.68 |
| Nick Blackburn | MIN | 17.3 | 5.71 | 1.615 | 5 | -19.13 |
| Barry Zito | SF | 9 | 10 | 1.889 | 8 | -17.64 |
| Joe Blanton | PHI | 10 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -17.32 |
| Dana Eveland | OAK | 10.7 | 6.75 | 1.969 | 6 | -17.08 |
| Fausto Carmona | CLE | 16 | 7.88 | 1.75 | 8 | -16.59 |
| Brad Penny | BOS | 9 | 11 | 2 | 3 | -15.55 |
| Jeff Niemann | TB | 11.3 | 6.35 | 1.765 | 6 | -15.52 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 16 | 7.88 | 1.562 | 20 | -15.03 |
| Jesse Litsch | TOR | 9 | 9 | 1.667 | 8 | -14.75 |
| Andy Sonnanstine | TB | 9.7 | 6.52 | 1.759 | 5 | -14.32 |
| Brandon Webb | ARI | 4 | 13.5 | 2 | 2 | -14.16 |
| Cliff Lee | CLE | 16 | 6.75 | 2 | 14 | -14.09 |
| David Purcey | TOR | 15.3 | 6.46 | 1.696 | 17 | -14.06 |
| Jose Contreras | CWS | 10.3 | 6.97 | 1.645 | 7 | -13.88 |
| Dan Wheeler | TB | 4.7 | 13.5 | 1.714 | 4 | -13.73 |
| John Lannan | WAS | 15.3 | 6.46 | 1.435 | 12 | -13.4 |
| Daniel Cabrera | WAS | 16 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6 | -13.1 |
| Scott Baker | MIN | 4 | 13.5 | 1.75 | 3 | -12.9 |
| Dave Bush | MIL | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.575 | 9 | -12.46 |
| Manny Parra | MIL | 10.3 | 6.97 | 1.452 | 7 | -12.33 |
| Mike Pelfrey | NYM | 10 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 5 | -11.49 |
| James McDonald | LAD | 7.7 | 5.87 | 1.696 | 4 | -11.39 |
| Roy Oswalt | HOU | 19 | 4.26 | 1.421 | 10 | -11.26 |
| Grant Balfour | TB | 3.3 | 13.5 | 3 | 3 | -11.1 |
| John Maine | NYM | 10 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 9 | -10.19 |