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Fantasy Baseball Expert Draft Results Revisited

In January, I particpated in Mock Draft Central's Fantasy Baseball Expert Mock Draft. With nearly three months past, I wanted to go back and review how I did. The basis of my analysis will be to compare the draft postion of the players I took with their final ADP. The question is how to interpret that data.

Foremost, I'd expect an expert to anticipate the actual draft positions of players in advance. To interpret this condition, one should see the expert's ADP match the actual ADP.

Second, I'd expect the expert to have some bargains amongst his draft list. This would mean taking some players later than they actually go in actual drafts i.e. picking a player in the 12th round (ADP 133-144) and seeing the actual ADP going earlier preferably at least a round earlier.

Finally, I'd like to see the expert's end game picks pan out to be valuable. This is the least important given the depth of a typical mixed league free agent pool. As a matter of fact, having the freedom to grab the hot free agent (Emilio Bonifacio) could be argued as more important that filling every roster spot with a hard-to-waive player.

Here is the team I drafted on January 19th. Did I meet my own criteria? Should I have other criteria?

Rd Player Team OA ADP
1 Ryan Braun MIL 8 7
2 Chase Utley PHI 17 15
3 Tim Lincecum SF 32 27
4 Brandon Webb ARI 41 45
5 Curtis Granderson DET 56 50
6 Roy Halladay TOR 65 46
7 Carlos Pena TB 80 62
8 Jay Bruce CIN 89 99
9 Jhonny Peralta CLE 104 103
10 Jayson Werth PHI 113 136
11 Jon Lester BOS 128 98
12 Yovani Gallardo MIL 137 118
13 Kerry Wood CLE 152 152
14 Brian Wilson SF 161 159
15 Jorge Posada NYY 176 198
16 Matt Lindstrom FLA 185 168
17 Hank Blalock TEX 200 173
18 Pablo Sandoval SF 209 219
19 Fausto Carmona CLE 224 297
20 Taylor Teagarden TEX 233 336
21 Jeff Francoeur ATL 248 237
22 Carlos Gomez MIN 257 282
23 Aaron Hill TOR 272 290