In January, I particpated in Mock Draft Central's Fantasy Baseball Expert Mock Draft. With nearly three months past, I wanted to go back and review how I did. The basis of my analysis will be to compare the draft postion of the players I took with their final ADP. The question is how to interpret that data.
Foremost, I'd expect an expert to anticipate the actual draft positions of players in advance. To interpret this condition, one should see the expert's ADP match the actual ADP.
Second, I'd expect the expert to have some bargains amongst his draft list. This would mean taking some players later than they actually go in actual drafts i.e. picking a player in the 12th round (ADP 133-144) and seeing the actual ADP going earlier preferably at least a round earlier.
Finally, I'd like to see the expert's end game picks pan out to be valuable. This is the least important given the depth of a typical mixed league free agent pool. As a matter of fact, having the freedom to grab the hot free agent (Emilio Bonifacio) could be argued as more important that filling every roster spot with a hard-to-waive player.
Here is the team I drafted on January 19th. Did I meet my own criteria? Should I have other criteria?
Rd | Player | Team | OA | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ryan Braun | MIL | 8 | 7 |
2 | Chase Utley | PHI | 17 | 15 |
3 | Tim Lincecum | SF | 32 | 27 |
4 | Brandon Webb | ARI | 41 | 45 |
5 | Curtis Granderson | DET | 56 | 50 |
6 | Roy Halladay | TOR | 65 | 46 |
7 | Carlos Pena | TB | 80 | 62 |
8 | Jay Bruce | CIN | 89 | 99 |
9 | Jhonny Peralta | CLE | 104 | 103 |
10 | Jayson Werth | PHI | 113 | 136 |
11 | Jon Lester | BOS | 128 | 98 |
12 | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | 137 | 118 |
13 | Kerry Wood | CLE | 152 | 152 |
14 | Brian Wilson | SF | 161 | 159 |
15 | Jorge Posada | NYY | 176 | 198 |
16 | Matt Lindstrom | FLA | 185 | 168 |
17 | Hank Blalock | TEX | 200 | 173 |
18 | Pablo Sandoval | SF | 209 | 219 |
19 | Fausto Carmona | CLE | 224 | 297 |
20 | Taylor Teagarden | TEX | 233 | 336 |
21 | Jeff Francoeur | ATL | 248 | 237 |
22 | Carlos Gomez | MIN | 257 | 282 |
23 | Aaron Hill | TOR | 272 | 290 |