I have traded emails with Eric several times talking about how the guys at Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus fall in love with the latest hyped prospect. After recent rumors that uber-prospect Stephen Strasberg may command an unheard of $50 milliion contract to sign this summer, the hype is reaching Pluto levels.
Yesterday in his chat., Will Carroll was asked the following question:
Will Carroll: Price slightly on handedness, team context, cost, and a bit less in unknowns. I say slightly and mean razor-thin. Big gap down to Kershaw.
And the followup question:
Max (Chetwynd): Price, Strasburg, and then a big gap down to Kershaw? Is this a health-related gap, or simply a form of the grass being greener (since we haven't really seen Price or Strasburg air it out at the Major League level yet)?
Will Carroll: Kershaw threw a lot of innings last year and while I didn't see enough of him to have anything more than a guess, I think he's about as good as he gets now. That's good, mind you, but I see more upside in the others. I'm slightly down on Kershaw, just on age and risk as well.
So, according to Will Carroll, we have seen the best of Clayton Kershaw?? Really??
And he sees more upside in two pitchers who haven't pitched more than 20 innings in the majors combined. And he is giving you his best guess, and its based on his age and risk. So, Price and Strasberg have no risk at all? C'mon Man!!
Recently, Baseball America's Jim Callis made a similar comment.
I have to call both of them out on this, as both Price and Strasberg have either none, or very minimal, experience pitching at the major league level. To top things off, Price was optioned to the minors today.
Meanwhile, all Kershaw has done was throw 100+ innings in 2008, with a 4.25 ERA, and has pitched well in spring training in 2009. Two years ago, he was getting the same hype as Strasberg and Price, but he has produced at the major league level, and is poised to improve upon his rookie season in 2009.
I bring this to your attention because alot of these so-called experts have not seen these ptichers pitch, They go on what scouts tell them. And they LOVE the current hot prospect. Take their comments with a grain of salt.