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Carlos Beltran or Matt Kemp- Who Do You Draft First?

On the heels of a breakout season for Matt Kemp in 2008, Kemp was quoted as saying he is capable of a 40-40 season at some point in his career. Ok. When I first read this quote, I actually laughed, because although Kemp is a personal favorite of mine, there is no way I see him reaching the HR total. Not in the near future for sure.

I can easily see Kemp stealing 40 bases this season, and I do see him improving upon his 18 HRs in 2009, but not even close to 40. I think he can go 25-90-35 this year.

In a recent mock draft, I thought about taking Kemp before the likes of Carlos Beltran or Carlos Lee since he is a 5 category guy.

I have a draft on April Fool's day this year, my only snake draft of the 3 money leagues I participate in. I am not sure who I would select if Carlos Beltran and Matt Kemp were still available in the 2nd round of this 10 team league. I say this for two reasons-1. I think Kemp can improve on his power numbers in 2009, and 2. I think Beltran's power numbers come down hitting in Citifield this year.

Plus, over the last 3 years Beltran's HR totals have dropped significantly, from 41 HR in 2006, to 33 HRs in 2007, to 27 HRs in 2008. On top of that, here are his home/road HR splits over the last 3 years: 2006-15/26, 2007-11/22. 2008-14/13. I see his road HR totals dropping in half over the last 3 years, and now he will be hitting in an extreme pitchers park in 2009, so you can expect his home HR totals to drop this year also.

I think you need to lower your expectations of Carlos Beltran who is on the other side of 30, and think about drafting, or going the extra dollar on the younger Matt Kemp.