Here are the Bill James projections for the NL closers I wrote about on Sunday afternoon.
|
Player |
|
S |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
CMD |
|
Lidge Brad RP PHI |
70 |
39 |
3.26 |
1.14 |
12.34 |
3.99 |
8.36 |
|
Broxton Jonathan RP LA |
70 |
30 |
3.03 |
1.09 |
11.19 |
3.47 |
7.71 |
|
Rodriguez Francisco RP NYM |
66 |
43 |
2.9 |
1.06 |
11.59 |
4.09 |
7.5 |
|
Valverde Jose RP HOU |
72 |
43 |
3.42 |
1.11 |
10.88 |
3.63 |
7.25 |
|
|
72 |
0 |
3.16 |
1.09 |
9.25 |
2.75 |
6.5 |
|
Street Huston RP |
70 |
28 |
2.9 |
1 |
9.13 |
2.7 |
6.43 |
|
Cordero Francisco RP CIN |
68 |
34 |
3.53 |
1.2 |
10.19 |
3.84 |
6.35 |
|
Gonzalez Mike RP ATL |
45 |
26 |
3.19 |
1.14 |
10.4 |
4.2 |
6.2 |
|
Hoffman Trevor RP Mil |
42 |
41 |
2.94 |
0.96 |
8.14 |
2.14 |
6 |
|
Capps Matt RP PIT |
47 |
29 |
3.2 |
1.01 |
6.89 |
1.15 |
5.74 |
|
Marmol Carlos RP CHC |
87 |
8 |
3.55 |
1.22 |
10.03 |
4.76 |
5.27 |
|
Qualls |
77 |
30 |
3.52 |
1.15 |
7.36 |
2.57 |
4.79 |
|
Hanrahan Joel SP WAS |
77 |
25 |
4 |
1.29 |
8.18 |
3.51 |
4.67 |
|
Perez Chris RP STL |
48 |
8 |
3.9 |
1.37 |
10.5 |
6.19 |
4.31 |
|
Wilson Brian RP SF |
63 |
46 |
3.74 |
1.3 |
8.86 |
4.57 |
4.29 |
|
Lindstrom Matt RP |
61 |
27 |
4.51 |
1.43 |
7.97 |
4.43 |
3.54 |
It is obvious from the table above that James calculated his projections prior to Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman leaving the Cubs and Padres. The projections for Heath Bell and Carlos Marmol are incomplete, but you can safely assume, they will save close to 30 games apiece, barring injury or losing the closer job. Then again, with the volatility with closers performances from year to year, it wouldn't surprise me to see either lose the closer job in 2009.