Listening to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus as a guest on Minors & Majors With Grant Paulsen talk about Baltimore Orioles' catcher Matt Wieters possibly being the best catch in baseball the moment he makes his major league debut got me thinking. What is Wieters worth in keeper leagues?
The major difference bewteen keeper and non-keeper leagues is the future value of the player in question. In a non-keeper league, the fear the Orioles' will try to avoid Super-Two-ness on Wieters by keeping him in the minors for 33% of 2009 does considerable damage to his overall value as does a rookie year struggle.
However, the degree of harm the Orioles or Wieters can do to his future value seems minimal. Is there anyone who wouldn't consider Wieters one of the top catchers in 2010 if he plays half a year or hits a mere mortal-like 270/350/450 in 2009?
The same can be said of Tampa Bay Rays rookie starting pitcher David Price. Goldstein was talking about a sub-.3.70 ERA in his rookie season along with some dominating efforts.
That type of effort would make Price a valuable 2008 player. If he performs as PECOTA predicts (4.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), would that damage his 2010 value? I tend to think it will hurt him more than a midddling effort would hurt Wieters.
Agree?