Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>
With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | E-X |
| Javier Vazquez | 9.77 | 1.81 | 5.41 | 0.82 | 1.03 | 0.297 | 76.60% | 2.87 | 2.77 | 2.82 | 0.05 |
| Tim Lincecum | 10.42 | 2.72 | 3.84 | 0.4 | 1.05 | 0.297 | 75.90% | 2.48 | 2.34 | 2.87 | -0.39 |
| Roy Halladay | 7.83 | 1.32 | 5.94 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.313 | 79.00% | 2.79 | 3.06 | 3.05 | -0.26 |
| Dan Haren | 8.75 | 1.49 | 5.87 | 1.06 | 1 | 0.28 | 77.00% | 3.14 | 3.23 | 3.08 | 0.06 |
| Jon Lester | 9.96 | 2.83 | 3.52 | 0.89 | 1.23 | 0.323 | 76.90% | 3.41 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 0.28 |
| Zack Greinke | 9.5 | 2 | 4.75 | 0.43 | 1.07 | 0.313 | 79.30% | 2.16 | 2.33 | 3.15 | -0.99 |
| Justin Verlander | 10.09 | 2.36 | 4.27 | 0.75 | 1.18 | 0.328 | 72.70% | 3.45 | 2.8 | 3.26 | 0.19 |
| Ricky Nolasco | 9.49 | 2.14 | 4.43 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.336 | 61.00% | 5.06 | 3.35 | 3.28 | 1.78 |
| Josh Beckett | 8.43 | 2.33 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 0.302 | 71.60% | 3.86 | 3.63 | 3.35 | 0.51 |
| Adam Wainwright | 8.19 | 2.55 | 3.21 | 0.66 | 1.21 | 0.309 | 80.40% | 2.63 | 3.11 | 3.36 | -0.73 |
Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | E-X |
| Ricky Nolasco | 9.49 | 2.14 | 4.43 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.336 | 61.00% | 5.06 | 3.35 | 3.28 | 1.78 |
| Carl Pavano | 6.64 | 1.76 | 3.77 | 1.17 | 1.37 | 0.335 | 66.10% | 5.1 | 4 | 3.96 | 1.14 |
| Livan Hernandez | 5 | 3.28 | 1.52 | 0.93 | 1.56 | 0.326 | 67.30% | 5.44 | 4.44 | 4.78 | 0.66 |
| Cole Hamels | 7.81 | 2 | 3.91 | 1.12 | 1.29 | 0.325 | 72.10% | 4.32 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 0.63 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 9.39 | 4.04 | 2.33 | 0.97 | 1.38 | 0.316 | 71.60% | 4.38 | 3.91 | 3.76 | 0.62 |
| Jason Hammel | 6.78 | 2.14 | 3.17 | 0.87 | 1.39 | 0.337 | 69.50% | 4.33 | 3.71 | 3.81 | 0.52 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 5.22 | 3.22 | 1.62 | 0.88 | 1.51 | 0.321 | 66.70% | 5.03 | 4.39 | 4.52 | 0.51 |
| Josh Beckett | 8.43 | 2.33 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 1.19 | 0.302 | 71.60% | 3.86 | 3.63 | 3.35 | 0.51 |
| Derek Lowe | 5.13 | 2.91 | 1.76 | 0.74 | 1.52 | 0.33 | 68.70% | 4.67 | 4.06 | 4.19 | 0.48 |
| Brett Anderson | 7.7 | 2.31 | 3.33 | 1.03 | 1.28 | 0.317 | 67.00% | 4.06 | 3.69 | 3.61 | 0.45 |
You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.