Some people rely in last year's stats to project how a hitter will perform the following season. Others look at 3-year averages. I like to look at last year's stats and 2nd half stats to see if I can find anyone who is ready to outperform his draft ranking, or someone who will fall flat on his face.
When looking at the list of 20-20 hitters in the NL, I was shocked to see how close David Wright and Shane Victorino were across the board in 2009. Here are their 2009 stats:
|Wright, David 3B NYM||535||88||164||10||72||74||140||27||9||0.307||0.390||0.447|
|Victorino, Shane CF PHI||620||102||181||10||62||60||71||25||8||0.292||0.358||0.445|
Who thought coming into 2009 that their stats would be so close....probably none. Wright obviously has the advantage in RBIs, SBs and average, but Victorino has the advantage in runs scored. But with Wright only hitting 10 HRs in 2009, his value has taken a big hit in my book. Others see him rebounding in 2010 in the power department. OK. How about clarifying by how much? I could see 20 HRs at the most from Wright in 2010, but that would not be my prediction for him,
Going into 2010 drafts, draft that top third baseman, think Reynolds or Zimmerman, early since the position will be thin in 2010, and then grab an OFer like Shane Victorino later in your draft should you need another SB guy.