4. Bobby Jenks- I wrote off Jenks last year and vowed to never draft him again after his fairly ugly 2008 season (likely injury related.) In 2009 Jenks saved 29 games with an ERA of 3.71 and gave up only four less home runs than he has throughout his entire career. While his K/9 increased back to 8.27, his BAA and WHIP increased and Matt Thornton proved to be a suitable replacement for Jenks if he were traded (as has been mentioned in numerous places.) If Jenks is traded before you draft next year, you can completely ignore this. Unless of course he's traded to a team that needs a closer, then this applies.
5. B.J. Upton- After a second straight let down of a year, Upton may still be drafted in the top ten or fifteen of outfielders based on his speed alone. I do believe a fair amount of his value is from his strong playoff performance in 2008 and since he wasn't able to reproduce those numbers, he'll surely drop in drafts. I still believe that a lot of his value may be in the fact that people still be live he'll be able to hit 20 home runs again while hitting for a decent average, as opposed to barely hitting double digit home runs and .250-.270. I'd like to make it known that his walk rate has dropped as well as his LD%. By drafting Upton in 2010, you're hoping he can steal you at least 35 bases (probably 40+) and taking a chance that his average will increase as well. I'm just not sold on him ever being that guy he was in 2007.
6. Brandon Inge- On November 3rd, Inge will be having surgery on BOTH of his knees to address his nagging patellar tendinitis. While he addresses his nagging knees, I address my nagging concern for him to remain a consistent fantasy producer in 2010. In 2009 Inge almost mirrored his first breakout season in 2006 except he had a far worse average at .230. Inge will probably be drafted among the likes of Ian Stewart and Casey McGehee, two players I'd much rather have on my fantasy lineup than Inge. If you check out his HR/FB% of 15.4%, it is the only season where he posted a number above 10% in his career besides his other 27 home run season. Now, I'm not saying his power is completely flukey, but he's got a track record of being a flukey player and I'm just not into flukes on my fantasy teams. Inge also will not have catcher eligibility so his value plummets because of it.
7. Erik Bedard- Bedard had his second shoulder surgery in a year and it's expected that Bedard may not be able to resume baseball activities for at least four to six months. Six months gives Bedard a date in April to BEGIN baseball activities. With no setbacks, we could be looking at a return in June at minimum most likely. We're looking at Ben Sheets 2009.
8. Derek Lee- He's going to be drafted near the likes of Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Kendry Morales and I'd easily take any of those guys over Lee. It's not due to his statistics at all, I just don't want to be concerned about Lee's health week in and week out. He's 34 years old and has been bothered by neck injuries in 2009. Although he played in 141 games, I'm just not confident drafting him over the likes of more consistent, younger producers in hopes that he can return to his 35 home run caliber.
9. Alex Rios- It's not that I don't like Rios, it's that there are so many other options that will be available when you would likely have to draft Rios. Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Cuddyer, Adam Jones all could be available around the same time Rios is in drafts. Not only that, but his peripheral stats are not ones that are overly appealing. Rios' OBP has made a steady drop over the last three years and his SLG% and AVG have both seen a decrease in four straight seasons. Rios is a talented player and if there is a ballpark and team he can succeed, it's with the White Sox in U.S. Cellular field.I'm not going to be the guy to wait and see if he can redeem himself when I can have Dexter Fowler many, many rounds later and likely get better production.
10. Jair Jurrjens- Raygu recently noted Jurrjen's difference in FIP and ERA here and I'm not about to pay what will be required. Jurrjens will probably be drafted amongst the likes of Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tommy Hanson and possibly even John Lackey and I will easily take any of those guys over Jurrjens. I think Raygu has basically said everything I would about Jurrjens in his article, so check it out if you want specifics.
11. Randy Wolf- One of the more flukey players in 2009, Wolf posted a BABIP of .257 and had an FIP of 3.96 on the season, which differs from ERA by over half of a run. In addition to his FIP, Wolf has seen his K/9 drop over the last three years and to a career low 6.72 in 2009. Looking at three different rankings for 2010, I see Wolf anywhere from 37 for starters to 65. Something tells me he'll be drafted closer to 65 than 37, and even then, I'd still take the higher upside guy in Jorge De La Rosa or a high upside young starter like Mat Latos, Clay Buchholz or Wade Davis.
12. J.A. Happ- See Jurrjens and Wolf, except many, many many rounds later.
13. Jake Peavy- Peavy has many things working against him in 2010 that he hasn't had previously in his career. First, he's moving out of Petco park which is likely the best pitcher's park in baseball and is moving to U.S. Cellular field, which is one of the better hitters parks in the majors. Secondly, Peavy is moving to the American League, where he'll face a DH instead of the pitcher for a vast majority of the season. Peavy will probably be drafted higher than top 20 in most leagues and at that point, I'll easily take guys like Gallardo, Javier Vazquez and Josh Beckett at that point. Peavy has also put up an ERA of 2.74 in his career in Petco Park and a move would surely raise Peavy's stats across the board. Just how much? We'll find out...But again, I'm not going to be the guy to find out first hand.