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Fantasy Baseball: FIP Losers in 2010?

Yesterday I posted an article discussing the pitchers with the best FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which aims to give fantasy/roto owners a clearer picture of how well, or not so well, a pitcher performed in 2009.

Today I give you the pitchers whose FIP was higher than their ERA in 2009, who could see their ERA's rise in 2010:

Name K/9 BB/9
K/BB
HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F
J.A. Happ 6.45 3.04 2.13 1.08 0.241 1.23 0.270 85.20% 2.93 4.33 -1.40
Kevin Millwood 5.57 3.22 1.73 1.18 0.258 1.34 0.279 78.60% 3.67 4.80 -1.13
Jair Jurrjens 6.36 3.14 2.03 0.63 0.235 1.21 0.273 79.40% 2.60 3.68 -1.08
Matt Cain 7.07 3.02 2.34 0.91 0.231 1.18 0.268 81.60% 2.89 3.89 -0.99
Bronson Arroyo 5.19 2.66 1.95 1.27 0.256 1.27 0.270 76.50% 3.84 4.78 -0.94
Randy Wells 5.66 2.5 2.26 0.76 0.261 1.28 0.294 76.00% 3.05 3.88 -0.83
John Danks 6.69 3.28 2.04 1.26 0.246 1.28 0.273 77.70% 3.77 4.59 -0.82
Rick Porcello 4.69 2.74 1.71 1.21 0.268 1.34 0.281 75.50% 3.96 4.77 -0.82
John Lannan 3.88 2.97 1.31 0.96 0.265 1.35 0.276 72.70% 3.88 4.70 -0.81
Ross Ohlendorf 5.55 2.7 2.06 1.27 0.249 1.23 0.265 76.30% 3.92 4.72 -0.80
Jarrod Washburn 5.11 2.51 2.04 1.18 0.244 1.19 0.257 75.40% 3.78 4.58 -0.80
Randy Wolf 6.72 2.44 2.76 1.01 0.227 1.10 0.257 77.30% 3.23 3.96 -0.72
Doug Davis 6.46 4.56 1.42 1.11 0.261 1.50 0.294 76.00% 4.12 4.84 -0.72
Trevor Cahill 4.53 3.63 1.25 1.36 0.269 1.44 0.276 72.60% 4.63 5.33 -0.70
Edwin Jackson 6.77 2.94 2.3 1.14 0.249 1.26 0.281 76.70% 3.62 4.28 -0.67
Johan Santana 7.88 2.48 3.17 1.08 0.249 1.21 0.296 78.00% 3.13 3.79 -0.66
Mark Buehrle 4.43 1.9 2.33 1.14 0.27 1.25 0.282 74.70% 3.84 4.46 -0.62
Felix Hernandez 8.18 2.68 3.06 0.57 0.229 1.14 0.289 76.70% 2.49 3.09 -0.60
Joe Saunders 4.89 3.1 1.58 1.4 0.278 1.43 0.290 73.50% 4.60 5.17 -0.57
Ted Lilly 7.68 1.83 4.19 1.12 0.232 1.06 0.270 77.80% 3.10 3.65 -0.55



The last column in this chart gives you the difference between the pitcher's ERA and FIP for 2009. As you can see, the Phillies J.A. Happ may have benefitted from an extreme LOB% of 85% this year. Looking at his peripherals, he gives up more than a HR/9 and his K/BB% is just over 2, which is good, but not great.

The Giants Matt Cain is another pitcher whose LOB% was over 80%, which is above AVG, so we can expect his ERA to rise in 2010. Cain benefitted from a reduced GB% and LD% in 2009, but his HR/FB% was the highest in his career. Something to watch in 2010.

The Braves Jair Jurrjens LOB% approached 80% as well, which is the highest of his young career so far. His 2009 FIP of 3.68 is exactly what his ERA was in 2008, so I would expect his ERA to rise in 2010.

A couple big name pitchers on this list to watch out for are the Mariners Felix Hernandez and the Mets Johan Santana.