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Fantasy Football Draft Trends

Mock Draft Central has run five expert mock drafts for the 2008 fantasy football season. Fake Teams particpated in the final one on Monday night (August 18th). The first was held on April 28th. What I wanted to do was compare the first and last expert draft and determine which way the most intense fantasy football winds were blowing when it comes to fantasy football draft thinking.

A look at the Top 20 Decliners shows 16 RBs with Green Bay Packers' RB Ryan Grant falling from the 6th overall selection to the end of the 2nd round at #22. Oakland Raiders' Rb Darren McFadden fell from the mid-second round to the 1st selection in the 6th. Did either of these backs deserve that kind of disrespect? As a matter of fact, why so many RBs declining so much?

Taking a look at the Top 20 Improvers shows hints at what was going on. 11 of these players were WRs, 3 were TEs and two were QBs. That coincidentally equals 16. Apparently, what the running game lost was made-up in a greater emphasis on the passing game. This makes some sense given the proliferation of RBBC, but why wouldn't the late April experts know this? That is a question I can't answer.

Top Decliners:

POS Player 1st Expert Draft Last Expert Draft %Change
RB Grant Ryan 6 22 -266.67
RB McFadden Darren 17 61 -258.82
RB Jones Julius 41 105 -156.1
RB Stewart Jonathan 38 94 -147.37
RB Brown Ronnie 10 24 -140
RB Johnson Rudi 36 80 -122.22
RB Taylor Fred 46 96 -108.7
QB Bulger Marc 63 130 -106.35
RB Jackson Steven 4 8 -100
RB Maroney Laurence 19 35 -84.21
RB Parker Willie 39 62 -58.97
RB Green Ahman 84 131 -55.95
RB Mendenhall Rashard 58 90 -55.17
WR Porter Jerry 93 142 -52.69
QB Hasselbeck Matt 70 104 -48.57
RB Jacobs Brandon 20 29 -45
RB Lewis Jamal 23 32 -39.13
RB Jones Kevin 105 145 -38.1
RB Johnson Larry 12 16 -33.33
TE Smith L.J 120 160 -33.33

Top Improvers:

POS Player 1st Expert Draft Last Expert Draft %Change
QB Brees Drew 44 31 29.55
TE Shockey Jeremy 103 72 30.1
WR Jackson Vincent 96 67 30.21
WR Bowe Dwayne 74 51 31.08
TE Daniels Owen 131 88 32.82
RB Gore Frank 9 6 33.33
RB Johnson Chris 143 95 33.57
TE Witten Jason 64 42 34.38
WR Johnson Andre 29 19 34.48
WR Houshmandzadeh T.J 22 14 36.36
WR Gaffney Jabar 177 112 36.72
WR Chambers Chris 76 48 36.84
QB Brady Tom 8 5 37.5
RB Rice Ray 161 99 38.51
WR Fitzgerald Larry 26 15 42.31
WR Wayne Reggie 21 12 42.86
DEF San Diego Chargers 149 85 42.95
WR Moss Randy 13 7 46.15
WR Colston Marques 34 18 47.06
RB Williams Ricky 107 55 48.6