Matthew Pouliot, Rotoworld's yeomen, has posted his Top 100 list for 2009. Anytime someone does this they open themselves up to critique so he started by calling this a "very, very preliminary set of 2009 rankings for keeper leaguers."
After looking at the list I do have some questions, most of which can be answered with a explanations such as "age, opportunity, and it's a Keeper League".
The list and thoughts after the jump . . .
Here's the list:
Only a few of these names seem way off base given the factors of next year's age, their assumed opportunity, and the fact that this is a list of keepers who can be kept multiple years . Here's where I have a problem:
10. Johan Santana - His K/9 rate significantly dropped this year and I don't know if he'll get it back. Even though he's Johan, I don't see the production of a first round pick.
12. Brandon Webb - He's betting on continued consistence. His numbers this year don't show complete dominance but, he'll be out there every five days giving a good to great start. Having Webb provides a safety net that allows you to go out and take risks with other starters. With this being said I still wouldn't take him quite this high.
17. BJ Upton - I have him in a keeper league where we keep our five best players and I'm betting his power shows up next year too. Nonetheless, 17 seems high given 4 of his 5 categories this year are extremely underwhelming. As I'm typing this he has 7 HR's in 408 ab's with a .265 average.
18. Carl Crawford - Anyone who owned him this year disagrees with this ranking. Yup, I'm one of them
25. Felix Hernandez - This is one of the only picks I really have a problem with. Yes, he's young. Yes, he flashes brilliance. But, and it's a big but, he's never shown consistency. He's never had one full year of dominance. Last year his K/BB was over 3/1 but, his WHIP was 1.38. This year his ERA is currently 2.94 but, his WHIP is 1.28 with a K/BB of 2.5/1. This year his HR are way down but, his walks are way up. He seems to get hurt every year and now his team stinks for the foreseeable future. I'd say he belongs around 75-100 in the 2009 draft and beyond.
31. Alex Rios - His and BJ Upton's year remind me so much of each other. Pouliot obviously believes the power is coming around with Rios as well. He has a career high in steals but 8 HR in 462 ab's is a killer, especially when he hit 24 the year before.
34. Lance Berkman - This lowish rating can probably be chalked up to ageism. He'll be 33 at the start of next year but, he's currently the #1 player on Yahoo rankings despite an HR 0-fer in July. He's got at least 3 more years of fantasy goodness.
36. Josh Hamilton - Another ranking that seems low given his emergence in 2008.
38. Victor Martinez - There will be some looking for a bounce back in 2009 but, I won't be one of them if his price is early 4th round.
44. Carlos Lee - Seems low given his year after year .300-30-100 production. Only 32 to start '09 season.
63. Matt Kemp - Here's a 24 year old who's about to go 20-40 while hitting .300. Is that something that would interest you? I'm thinking top 40.
66. Chris Carpenter - No one in their right mind is going to take him here. Pitchers are too easy to come by to take a 34 year old who's making a comeback after his second major surgery.
85. Adrian Gonzalez - He's about to go 40-100 in the best pitchers park of this generation. Oh ya, his age 27 season is next year. Take him in the 4th round or before.
89. Carlos Quentin - Currently the 7th rated player on Yahoo. His numbers project out to .284-100-43-120-8. Will be 26 during the bulk of '09. Another player I'd take at least 40-50 spots higher.
As Pouliot stated earlier this is a very early list and is subject to change quite a bit before we need to be handing in keeper lists. Despite the fact that I only listed the rankings I had a problem with, I like this list and do find lists like this important. This is the time of year that 2/3 of all fantasy players in keeper leagues are looking towards next year.
What are your thoughts on the list and how many of the 100 do you have in each of your keeper leagues? Chris Carpenter doesn't count.