I haven't BABIPed in a while, but the mid-point of the season is a good time to do so. Given the leaders in BABIP over the last few seasons have not been below .270, I am secure in saying the Leaders will see worse BABIPs over the remiander of the year.
What makes BABIPing more interesting is the AL has surpassed the NL in SLG with two-and-a-half weeks of interleague play obscuring that fact. Eight of the Top 10 BABIP leaders are in the AL. Now that they do not face the NL, will these pitchers finally get the pummelling from the AL hitters that their BABIPs signal they should?
Last night, Justin Masterson allowed four runs in six IP. His hits were OK, but the walks and HRs will be his undoing. Ironically, allowing walks and HRs keeps his BABIP low because walks are not included in the calculation and HRs are subtracted from the numerator and denominator. Armando Galarraga gave up nine hits in six innings, and Gavin Floyd would have fared worse but for an unearned run allowed.
The Laggards are a different story because I am not convinced pitchers who are getting whacked regularly will keep their rotation spot despite being unlucky by BABIP standards. While performances look good with lucky BABIP, unlucky ones force people to disbelief their lying eyes. Stats have come a long way in baseball, but I am not sure they have come so far as to eliminate the human element. Does anyone think that Eric Wedge will keep sending Jeremy Sowers to the mound because he knows his BABIP luck is about to turn?
|Jorge De La Rosa||COL||9.5||3.5||0.349|