I admit it. Despite the season being less than a week old, I am terrified of thinking what the San Francisco Giants will do in terms of run production. While they have scored one fewer run than the Detroit Tigers, I don't have that same gnawing sense of doom about the Tigers slow start as I do with the Giants.
The Tigers have 9 XBH (6 doubles and 3 HRs). The Giants have a double by Jose Castillo, a player not good enough to play for the Florida Marlins. The Giants season appear to be at the outset of making history.
As a result of this fear (irrational?), I wouldn't spend significant money on any of the current starting hitters for the Giants with the exception of C Bengi Molina, who should get 60 RBIs and be relatively valuable, and Aaron Rowand, whose $60MM contract guarantees he plays everyday this season. All the rest are headed towards seasons where they drive in runs or score them at levels that proof to be the exception to the Rule of Getting Starting Players in fantasy baseball roster construction.
The exception being keeper leagues, and really NL-Only ones. This current startign line-up for the Giants has to be jettisoned. Buh-bye, Dave Roberts. Buh-bye Randy Winn, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Jose Castillo, Omar Vizquel. When the Giants front office smartens up and does this, say hello to Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz, Dan Ortmeier, Eugenio Velez and John Bowker.
For Giants pitchers, the team looks solid with a rotation led by Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum and a bullpen led by Brian Wilson. Both starters are good fantasy pitchers in 5x5 formats. They suffer some in a 4x4 format where Ks are not used to justify a low Wins total.
As a rule this year, I would avoid the rest of the Giants rotation in favor of some of their middle relivers because the Wins won't be there for the starters but the innings-weighted ratios will be. Why not gamble on a high-upside bullpen arm like Merkin Valdez, who could throw 80-100 innings with a similar number of Ks, than hope that Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez can keep their ratios low enough to offset their lack of Wins?