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Draft Strategy: Buying Early Stats

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With regular season underway and one more draft to complete, an NL-Only 4x4, I take note of any performances that occur before the draft and decide whether I want to buy that good or bad performance.  Last night, the St. Louis Cardinal's big off-season signing, SP Kyle Lohse, threw five shutout innings againt the NL Champion Colorado Rockies.

Should I go an extra couple of dollars at the auction because I know those five scoreless innings will look good in my pitching ratios once the 2008 fantasy baseball season in live?

What about the opposite case?  After a scoreless 1st inning agains the Cleveland Indians on Monday, White Sox SP Mark Buerhle could not get three outs in the 2nd before allowing seven earned runs.  Should a fantasy player bid a few dollars less because he doesn't want to pay for that horrendous start?

Is purchasing good or bad early season performances something that should be done at a premium or discount?  Does it matter if that player is an established one or an unknown?

These are some of the questions I ask myself before every draft that occurs after the start of the regular season.