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What Does Draft Inflation Look Like

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What does inflation look like in keeper leagues? It is a question that most fantasy players do not know the answer to. They know it is a lot because generic player values do not match anything they see in their actual drafts. As a result, fantasy teams just accept that those dollar values are worthless and only look at the rankings of the players to get an idea how good a player is expected to be.

While that offers a good enough work around, there are programs that will do the calculations if you are willing to enter the data on salaries of kept players. Baseball Prospectus offers this service as part of its subscription. It is the Player Forecast Manager and utilizes current PECOTA values to make the projections.

I took that time for my AL-Only 4x4 keeper league, and these are the results. My first reaction was, "WTF! $67 for Alex Rodriguez and for Carl Crawford?" My next was to reexamine whether Carl Crawford should be kept at his current salary of $50. Did I make an erroneous assumption thinking he would be thrown back at that salary?

PLAYER POS TEAM $$$
Rodriguez Alex 3B NYA 67.57
Crawford Carl LF TBA 67.16
Sizemore Grady CF CLE 54.66
Upton B.J. 3B TBA 52.03
Cabrera Miguel 3B DET 46.4
Ortiz David DH BOS 44.97
Guerrero Vladimir RF LAA 44.45
Rivera Mariano RP NYA 39.42
Street Huston RP OAK 35.91
Ordonez Magglio RF DET 34.98
Swisher Nicholas 1B/LF CHA 32.13
Gomez Carlos CF MIN 31.87
Young Mike SS TEX 31.53
Wells Vernon CF TOR 31.16
Morneau Justin 1B MIN 29.5
Mauer Joe C MIN 28.44
Thome Jim DH CHA 27.85
Dye Jermaine RF CHA 27.2
Ryan B.J. RP TOR 26.77
Bradley Milton RF TEX 26.7