In his ESPN chat yesterday, Nate Ravitz was asked which five players in the Top 50 he wouldn't touch with a 5' pole. He answered Albert Pujols, Erik Bedard, BJ Upton, Cole Hamels or Robinson Cano. This immeidately made me think of which ones I would avoid in most circumstances.
Top get a Top 50 list, I used the ADP list from Mock Draft Central posted yesterday afternoon. Man, I wish it included Cole Hamels and Robinson Cano because it was much harder to find five in the Top 50. But choose five I will. The ADP is also noted.
1. Albert Pujols 1B (7):
I am scared of the elbow and see too many similarly-skilled players worth taking (Chase Utley, Miguel Cabrera, etc) to risk losing Pujols for the season to Tommy John surgery.
2. Vladimir Guerrero OF/DH (25):
News came out that the elbow that caused Vlad to DH in last year's play-offs is still bothering him. There are equally good options at OF like Alex Rios, Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez to take without risking an injury-diminished season.
3. Justin Morneau 1B (29):
Come on! The dude has one >.271 AVG season in the past three, and it wasn't 2007. He's good, but I wouldn't take him with Carlos Pena (60), Adrian Gonzalez (72) and Paul Konerko (79) still available. This is, by far, the easiest decision to make.
4. Adam Dunn OF (40):
He is good for 40 HRs, but will he hit .264 again? Even if he did, why take an AVG negative in the OF this early?
5. Jonathan Papelbon RP (45):
I wouldn't take a closer this early when I could grab an elite SP like Josh Beckett, John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren or Justin Verlander. All were ranked between 47 (Beckett) and 66 (Verlander).
Who is going in the first four rounds or so that you wouldn't take?