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2008 Projection: Andy Pettitte

Today is D-Day for the Yankees' Andy Pettitte. He is set to report to Training Camp in Tampa, FL, and meet witht he press about his HGH use and his depositions about former teammate Roger Clemens' usage. Originally, he was set for his 1st workout also, but that has been postponed in anticipation of an all-consuming press conference.

The biggest question I have is how all of this HGH rigamarole will affect his 2008 performance. I suspect it will be a slight negative assuming Roger Clemens is pursued by the federal government on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. Given Congress's emphasis on Andy Pettitte's character, Andy appears to be the key witness and will still be answering questions even after a full day spent doing so today.

As a result, I placed him in the $8-14 bucket for AL-Only keeper leagues. I know he has pitched poorly in the past when he had concerns about his family. I am assuming he will react similarly now, but only less so becuase family and God cause more distress than Clemens and the press.

However, from what I gather from Nate Silver's PECOTA forecast and Ron Shandler's forecast, these will have to be adjusted somewhat. Here those are.

  1. PECOTA 12W/4.20 ERA/1.40 WHIP in 176 IP
  2. Shandler 13W/4.12 ERA/1.40 WHIP in 203 IP
The ratios are right on if Pettitte doesn't struggle this season. The Wins are too low, but most projections I have seen always understate Wins at the top end of the scale. (PECOTA projects Johan Santana to win 16 of 32 games. No other pitcher has a Win projection that high.)

How much both forecasts should be adjusted has yet to be determined.