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MLB Trade Rumors: Jake Peavy

With various sources reporting that the San Diego Padres will trade Jake Peavy before the Winter Meetings in December, I may as well jump the gun and note Peavy's home/road splits. Given the extreme pitcher's park that is Petco Stadium, post-trade Peavy commentary will begin with Peavy's home/road splits.

This chart shows that commentary is entirely justified as Peavy has been better at home in each of the past three seasons although his 2007 CY Young season was nearly at par (+0.04 higher ERA on the road). Despite this near-zero in a three year average, Peavy still averages a full run worse on the road than at home.

None if that is Earth-shattering news. What I find more interesting is the consistency in Peavy's strikeout splits. On the road, he has struck out markedly fewer hitters than at home- 32% fewer in 2006, 27% fewer in 2007 and 44% fewer last season. This is worrisome given all his games become "road" games once he is dealt.

The question that needs to be answered is why this. Does Peavy become less agressive away from the comfy confines of Petco? Without the binky of Petco, does Peavy become skittish or does he adapt and remain the same strikeout pitcher with a slightly higher ERA?

Year Home ERA Road ERA Home K Road K
2008 1.75 4.28 99 67
2007 2.51 2.47 139 101
2006 3.75 4.57 137 78
3-Year AVG 2.72 3.73 375 246

FWIW, Peavy's road ERA was 22% worse than his home in 2008, 2% in 2007 and 245% in 2006 and 37% over those three seasons.