One of the most popular "rules" in fantasy football is that wide receivers tend to breakout during their 3rd NFL season. That third season seems to be when WRs adapt to the increased speed and complexity of the pro game and finally get a chance to show what they can do. Of course, some WRs have great rookie or sophomore seasons, but the 3rd year is when the breakout occurs. It's a fantasy football lock!
Except for this year
This year is a wasteland for breakout 3rd year WRs. If you were drafting unknown 3rd year WRs in your fantasy league, you're probably having a Detroit Lion-like season right now. Here's a review of the WRs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft:
1) Santonio Holmes
2) Chad Jackson
3) Sinorice Moss
Wow. Holmes had a great 2007, but hasn't been able to produce at all this year since Roethlisberger spends so much time on his back. I'm not even sure Jackson is still in the league, and Moss is a non-factor with the Giants.
4) Greg Jennings
5) Travis Wilson
6) Derek Hagan
7) Brandon Williams
8) Maurice Stovall
OK, Jennings is a stud, but he was a stud last year too. Everybody expected him to have a good third season, he didn't surprise anybody. Hagan has been a disappointment, Williams has never caught a pass in the NFL, the other guys aren't worth looking up. I'm not even sure Travis Wilson ever existed, let alone was a 3rd round NFL draft pick.
9) Willie Reid
10) Brad Smith
11) Cory Rodgers
12) Jason Avant
13) Demetrius Williams
14) Brandon Marshall
Again, Marshall was a stud -- and a knucklehead -- last season. No surprise there. These other guys are non-entities. It's not just that they're not stars, or they're not fantasy starters, they're not even on the farthest fringes of fantasy football. Of those 14 players, there are the big three (Holmes, Jennings, Marshall) and then I'd be shocked if even one of those 11 guys were on a roster in your fantasy league
15) Skyler Green
OK, I'm stopping now. Skyler Green? The Cowboys drafted a guy named Skyler? Come on.
29) Marques Colston
After 13 more garbage picks, here comes Colston. Also a great pick last season, also not a surprise.
I don't know if 2006 was just a horrendous NFL draft year for wide receivers, or if the 3rd year WR rule has become obsolete as WRs develop faster. That's something to keep an eye on for next year. I will say that the 2007 NFL Draft class already has a number of quality fantasy WRs (Calvin Johnson, Bowe, Ginn, Breaston) excelling during their second year, so maybe the old "rule" does need to be modified.
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