clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Year End Trade Analysis: Rolling the Dice-Came up 7's

New, 5 comments

Back on August 14th, I posted an article telling you about the trade decision I made in my UBA NL-only keeper leagues. At the time I was in 2nd place in the league (Eric and a few commenters on this site are owners in this league). My decision was to trade for a $50 Manny Ramirez and $1 Ryan Spilborghs in exchange for a $15 Jeremy Hermida, and roll the dice with my closers Jonathon Broxton and Salomon Torres. My thought was that, instead of trading for a 3rd closer-Francisco Cordero, I already had a possible 3rd closer on my roster-either Adam Wainwright or Manny Corpas. I was rolling the dice on one of them becoming a closer.

At the time of the deal, Wainwright was rumored to return from the DL as the Cardinals closer. Then he was rumored to come back as a starter. Then as closer again. Ultimately, he came back as a starter. Corpas was the heir apparent as the Rockies closer should Brian Fuentes get traded. The Rockies were playing terrible at the time, so a Fuentes trade looked likely. Then a funny thing happened. They started winning...and winning....and winning. By the 8/31 trade deadline, the Rockies were still in the wildcard race. Some thought they could overtake the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, who at the time were not playing well. So Fuentes was not dealt. And Corpas did not get any chance to close.

Before the deal I was in 2nd place 4.5 points out of first place. As a result of the deal I made, I ended up in a tie for 2nd place, 3 points out of first. I did gain one point in the saves category, and one point in the HR category. But, my pitching stunk up the joint as I lost 3 points in ratio, and a few points in ERA.

Had I made the trade for Cordero, I would have made up 3 more points in the saves category, but I would have lost a point in HRs and RBIs without Manny....net-net...I would have gained one additional point...giving me 2nd overall. In addition, in a late season roster move I dropped Felipe Lopez, and his cheap $7 contract, to grab Rafael Furcal, and his cheaper $10 contract out of the FA pool, when he was activated from the DL. This move probably cost me 1 point in average as Lopez went off going 8 for 12 with a HR and 4 RBIs. I chose to drop Lopez instead of Ty Wigginton because I assumed Wiggy would drive in more runs, and play more the Lopez. I thought wrong.

So the Cordero deal, and dropping Wiggy instead of Lopez, would have guaranteed me 2nd place to myself, but not first....which was the big prize. Those of you who said  I made the wrong trade decision back in August were correct.

So much for rolling the dice on closers. Never again.

So who's shopping closers this offseason??