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Fantasy Football Tips - QBs

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In prepartion for the 2007 fantasy football season, I deviated from my typical read-only method of prepartion (internet, newspapers, existing magazine subscriptions coverage) and went out and purchased two football-specific books, Pro Football Prospectus and K.C. Joyner's Scientific Football 2007.  Both have augmented my knowledge and ability to evaluate players in ways I had not previously.

I have tried to pass on some of the tidbits I have picked-up and find the PFP2007 easier to convey because it is set-up in a more traditional manner.  SF2007 is slightly different in that it focuses exclusively on the passing game - QBs, WRs, TEs, CBs and Ss.  It is also filled with various Excel-based reproduced charts.  These take-up the first 158 pages of the 374-page guide.

As a result, I have not brought a lot of information from it to the Fake Teams' readership.  However, I did some pain-staking transcription from the books charts back into Excel in the hopes that I could mine some of the data.  At the very least, it allows me to sort by a criteria other than the one from SC2007 - Yards Per Attempt.  I was also able to calculate some rates of dispersion - standard deviation and high/low.

I wanted to see both because I sense that the YPA is constrained to a fairly tight range, and was not disappointed to see a YPA of +/-1 sigma to be 6.1 YPA to 7.5 YPA.  That 1.4 YPA range comes out to 549 more yards per season.  That is a lot of yards, but works out to just 34 per game.  That is basically one point per week in most fantasy leagues and does not strike me as meaningful.

By calculating rates of dispersion, I am also able to determine what to make of various depths of passes K.C. Joyner charts.  Even with the rates, I still have no historical dat with which to compare.  So what if the average number of Bombs thrown was 22.1.  Without knowing what the average was in the preceeding years, I have no context, beyond the assumption that it was the same, to compare.

That aside, here are the QBs who threw more than 31 Bombs last year (22.1 AVG plus one sigma - 9.3).  If you desire high reward QBs for your fantasy squad, there are a couple of surprises here.

  1. Peyton Manning IND 39
  2. Michael Vick ATL 39
  3. Carson Palmer CIN 39
  4. Brett Favre GB 34
  5. JP Losman BUF 33
  6. Marc Bulger STL 32
  7. Rex Grossman CHI 32