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2007 New York Jets

Pro Football Prospectus 2007 likes the New York Jets in 2007 with a 57% chance to be a play-off contender or Super Bowl one.  However, and there is always a "however" when talking about the Jets, PFP2007 sees several statistical anomalies that do not bode well.  By Points Allowed the Jets were 6th in 2006, but by the PFP2007 metrics, the team was 26th.  Why?

  1.  5th easiest schedule
  2.  The Jets and their opponents played at a slow pace.
  3.  There was just one defensive TD scored against the Jets.
  4.  Their opponents had poor field goal percentages and average kick-off distance
  5.  They recovered 75% of the fumbles on defense
There is a buttressing argument for luck in a chart provided that shows the Jets run defense was one of the most generous with 11 of the 13 lead backs having an above-average game against the team, and five of those having their season-high total.

Despite this, PFP2007 expects the Jets to be better even if their record does not reflect improvement relative to the team's 2006 one.