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Fantasy Football Draft Tips - ADP and Percent Drafted

For those who subscribe, Mock Draft Central offers an Average Draft Position (ADP) report that is updated with all the mock drafts that have occurred on the site. Due to the site's popularity, these ADP Reports have large enough samples of drafts (664) that I feel comfortable using the data to make assertions of relative draft value.

After exporting the data into Excel, I added a new figure to the ones already available - ADP, Earliest & Latest Drafted. Very simply, it is Percent Drafted (%D). By looking at the data this way, one can more easily see whether a particular player will be drafted. As an example, I see J.P. Losman as a sleeper thanks to his long TD potential with WR Lee Evans and the hope that a second WR steps up and makes this passing offense absolutely lethal. (And more consistent.)

Losman's ADP is in the 150s with the highest he has been selected is 98th (9th round in a 12-team league) and the lowest in "ND" - not drafted. But how frequently is Losman going to go undrafted if his ADP places his selection in the 14th round of a 12-team draft, but his rnage of DPs is 9th to not at all? By looking at the percent of time he was drafted, one can get an idea of when you'll need to jump and take him. He was drafted 75.5% of the time, and, with some sorting, you learn that 21 QBs were taken more frequently with 15 of them taken in 100% of the drafts.

With that information, one could reasonably conclude that taking Losman before those 100%-ers would be drafting him too early. Brett Favre had the lowest ADP at 110 (10th round) and gives a good idea of when to consider Losman - no earlier than the 10th. Or you can look at the group of QBs that surround Losman and decide to grab him once the other teams begin to dip into this pool.

Another way to use (%D) is to see how well-known (appreciated?) your sleeper QB is. For most, JP Losman is a good example, but what if you've been looking at K.C. Joyner's Bomb and Deep Pass Metrics in Scientific Football 2007 and become convinced that Jeff Garcia will thrive in Tampa Bay with a proven long-threat like Joey Galloway combined with his 13.7 Yards Per Attempt on Bombs (upper half) and 14.0 YPA on Deep passes (7th best).

By ADP, Garcia is 188th with an Earliest of 113. His %D is 38.6%. There is a good chance that he will by right there in Round K-1. ("K" equals the last round of your draft and is desgnated as such because that is the round Kickers should be selected.) Here is a list of sub-100% draftees and their %D.

Player Team %D
QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 97.9%
QB Matt Schaub HOU 95.5%
QB Alex Smith SF 92.2%
QB Jake Delhomme CAR 89.0%
QB Trent Green MIA 90.8%
QB Rex Grossman CHI 80.9%
QB J.P. Losman BUF 75.6%
QB Chad Pennington NYJ 66.6%
QB Jason Campbell WAS 59.9%
QB Steve McNair BAL 56.6%
QB Byron Leftwich JAX 46.2%
QB Jeff Garcia TB 38.6%
QB Daunte Culpepper OAK 14.3%
QB Joey Harrington ATL 16.0%
QB Brady Quinn CLE 5.9%
QB Michael Vick ATL 3.6%
QB Damon Huard KC 7.4%
QB Chris Simms TB 7.1%
QB Tarvaris Jackson MIN 3.5%
QB David Carr CAR 1.7%
QB JaMarcus Russell OAK 3.8%
QB Charlie Frye CLE 3.6%