AFC Stats By Position

With a couple weeks until most fantasy football drafts are finished, I am putting up the raw stats I look at when trying to determine what to expect from various players what the total yards were for each position - top RB, #1 WR, #2 WR, #3WR, #1TE and top receiving RB. Listening to various projections on different players can be put into context better if you are aware of how the yardage totals were distributed previously.

As an example, there have been a total of three 1,000+ yard second WRs amongst the 16 AFC teams (32 seasons). Projecting there will be more than one or two in 2007 goes against historical fact. My guess would be Reggie Wayne, who has two of those three 1,000+ yard seasons and T.J. Housmanzedah, who has the other. Both players are in the same systems this season as the previous two with the same supporting #1WR and QB.

Knowing there were only three 1,000+ YD #2WRs leads me to loosening the expectations of a #2. Making the cut-off 900+ YDs, only adds three more seasons. That would make the total six out of 32 seasons - 18.75%. Even lowering the threshhold to 800 or more yards adds just one more AFC #2WR.

After the #1WR receivers, there is little reason to expect big things (1,000 yard) from the second WR on most teams. So when I hear about the big things expected from Lions WRs Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson ( I know save it for the NFC version), I pause.