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Brady Quinn - Starting Cleveland Browns QB?

Update [2007-8-20 14:16:40 by Eric Hz]: From's Matt Williamson chat:

Lenny (Akron, OH): True or False...Brady Quinn will start by week 4?

Matt Williamson: (12:57 PM ET ) T

Update [2007-8-19 10:28:46 by Eric Hz]: Quinn completed 13 of 20 passes for 155 yards and two TDs in yesterday's pre-season game versus the Lions.

An article in this week's Sporting News about Brown's QB Brady Quinn got me to thinking who would be the best QB to lead the Browns this season. I share the same opinion of his competitors, incumbent Charlie Frye and back-up Derek Anderson, that most do - that neither will block Quinn the moment the Cleveland staff feels Quinn is ready to take over.

In Scientific Football 2007, K.C. Joyner offers an opinion that could favor Quinn despite the holdout. He writes, "[The Browns] have completely retooled the offensive system....Their quarterbacks and receivers are all young and are now going to have to learn a completely new system that is very difficult to grasp for the first year [Mike Martz-style offense]." While Fyre's experience, and Anderson's for that matter, should allow them to ramp-up in a new system quicker, it is not so great as to leave the competitve field so uneven that Quinn could not win the job the Browns clearly want him to have by next season. Otherwise, why deal next year's 1st round pick to move up and draft him?

Looking overThe Football Scientist 2007 Fantasy Football Draft Guide for a more fantasy-focused perspective, I found it to favor Anderson. It states:

Frye makes too many mistakes for even a Martz- style offense...Anderson will have to fight through the established starter and the hot shot rookie...Quinn is inaccurate as H*** and, in my opinion, could have a disastrous first year...

"Too many mistakes" to describe Frye and "inaccurate as H***" to characterize Quinn points towards Joyner's belief that Derek Anderson would be the best of the three options.

Finally, I checked PFP2007. David Lewin's excellent "Projecting Rookie Quarterbacks, Revisited" article projects Quinn's rookie season to be the 24th best if it were included amongst the 45 QBs who had at least 100 passes in 2006, and his peak seasons (5th through 9th) to be 7th. FWIW, these projections are based upon a college QBs Games Started and Completion Percentage - the more GS and higher the C% the better the projection.

Finally, I checked PFP2007's KUBIAK projections for the upcoming season to see if they jibe with Lewin's projections. The KUBIAKs assume each man played a 16-game schedule and point towards....

Pro Football Prospectus 2007's Cleveland QB Projections:

Charlie Frye 283 439 64.4 2781 17 20
Derek Anderson 252 424 59.4 2734 19 13
Brady Quinn 290 465 62.3 3230 14 19