So I am goofing around with Excel calculating the number of days between today (8/13/07) and the last day of the regular season (09/30/07) i.e. 9/30/07 minus 8/13/07 equals 48. After watching the strategic decisions I've made in my AL- and NL-only leagues bear less results than I anticipated, the 48 days calculation caused and "Aha!" moment.
I took the 48 and added it to the first day of the season (04/01/07) and got the result of 5/19/07. On May 19th, which fantasy players are panicking and making moves based on seven weeks of games? Not the successful ones. Which fantasy experts are advising to make those moves? None worth anything.
Then why treat the 48 days from the other end of the season any differently? Shouldn't most advice warn of the randomness involved in any one player's production over 48 days the same way it does when talking about any one player's first 48 days?
This explains the riskiness of Chasing Wins or dealing for HRs and RBIs. One never knows when you just dealt a Brian Giles who procedes to hit 5 HRs in three days. Or when a team out of contention but ahead of you in Wins picks-up Edwin Jackson for next year and gets a shutout while your acquisition of Oliver Perez turns up daisies.
With so little time remaining, you need most of it to pull even much less ahead.