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Player Projections

With the mathematical half-way point just a couple games away, it is time to begin looking at players differently.  No longer can you look at the standings and think, "I'm only 15 HRs behind the team in front of me.  If James Loney is a 20 HR hitter like Eric Karabell said, then I should deal a pitcher for him.  I can make-up that ground by season's end."  The same can be said (minus the Karabell part) about any counting category.

Why?  Because those player projections are full season ones, and all fantasy gurus and players think in those terms.  The exception is Dave Luciani at Baseball Notebook, and even he is constantly reminding his readers that his projections are for the remainder of the season.  

There is just half a season left.  In order to make-up a 15-HR deficit, a fantasy team needs to acquire a 30 HR hitter.  No matter how well James Loney is doing, he is not a 30 HR hitter.  And the price tag in pitching for a hitter of that caliber is a pitcher of that caliber.  And who is making those studs available right now?