With almost one full month in the books, the stats being accumulated by most players begin to tell a story. Coming into the season, the consensus opinion on the Nationals starters was to avoid all of them with the exception of John Patterson, who had an excellent 2005 fantasy season. In combination with his pitching-favorable home park, he was a "safe" selection.
However, with the season providing actual production rather than projections, we can begin to conclude that Patterson was not worthy of his pre-season values. He isn't striking out anyone (4.54 K/9) and is getting pounded by opposing hitters (.910 OPS allowed).
Matt Chico and Jerome Williams aren't doing anything to change the pre-season warnings to avoid Natspos pitchers. That is not the case with youngsters Shawn Hill and Justin Bergmann. Both pitchers look like they could be leaving the mixed-league free agent pools very soon.
Shawn Hill has some very enticing stats. His K/9 is non-descript, but he has a GB/FB ratio of 2.0 and an OPSA of .619. With his home park, he looks like he could continue to produce value.
Justin Bergmann has the k/9 that raises eyebrows (8.18) and the OPSA (.584), but his GB/FB is scary (.60). However, his home park will mitigate that as will his division opponents' parks (Shea and Pro Player).
A crazy month's worth of starts isn't statistically valid, but it does provide as good data as one could expect for players with no track record. Shawn Hill and Justin Bergmann are players to watch now, and John patterson is one to sit until further notice. Jerome Williams and Matt Chico remain unchanged in fantasy value.