Can there be any more hype? (Actually there can. Next winter, former Japanese centerfielder Ichiro Suzuki and current Japanese centerfielder Kosuke Fukudome will be on the free agent market. Are there enough Japanese journalists to cover both?) Given the hype and attendent expectations, Matsuzaka is going in the midst of the third tier of starting pitchers. That seems to be a reasonable area to select him.
I've never selected him because I tend to take the proven pitcher over the one I expect to perform similarly based on nothing but hype (190 IP, 4-ish ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 Ks). What type of pitcher do I prefer at the time Matsuzaka is selected? Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, etc.
Could Matzusaka blow those pitchers' production out of the water? Based on the hype and one hundred and one million other reasons? Maybe. But I'll "settle" for Mike Mussina or Curt Schilling rather than over-reach on Dice-K just for the warm feeling I'd get watching him on Sportscenter knowing he is on my fantasy team!