Minor League Fantasy Draft

Here are the results from a brand new 5X5 fantasy league of which I am member.  Rather than just posting the draft and letting people have at it, I thought I would go through my picks, give my rationale, and let people have some insight into my thought process.  I do NOT profess to be an expert, just a guy that likes baseball, watching it, reading about it, playing fantasy versions of it.  I figure there are couple guys like me in each of your leagues, so I thought doing a show my hand diary might be more useful than just posting this list and moving along.  Also, it will be helpful for me to hear comments about my draft.  

My thought processes and biases.  This is the first time that I've done a minor league draft.  An NL only league does a mini, two round draft each year.  So, this draft is already four times deeper than that.  Plus, my bias is NL guys since I've been reading about them for the past three or four years to keep up with that league.  Either because of my bias or something else, I ended up with all NL players.  

My second bias is that I wanted to gravitate towards guys who were close to ready or projectable. Again repeating that I'm not expert, I trusted the guys who are.  For the first seven rounds, I did NOT have John's book.  However, I had complied his newsletters together and had taken all the guys he ranked B+ or higher and made a list of them.  I then compared that against Kevin Goldstein's lists at BP, to determine consensus rankings.  After I had those, I compared them against the PECOTA numbers.  I used PECOTA only to break out and not ties, or at least ties in my mind.  

2007 SCFBL Minor League Draft Order
Round 1

Chris: Delmon Young, OF, TB

Matt: Alex Gordon, 3B, KC

Nik: Philip Hughes, SP, NYY

Scott: Brandon Wood, SS, LAA

Jesse: Homer Bailey, SP, CIN

Zach: Matt Garza, SP, MIN

Jason: Chris Young, OF, ARI

Mike: Justin Upton, OF, ARI

Ryan: Billy Butler, OF, KC

JJ: Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM

Kenny: Cameron Maybin, OF, DET

Stephen: Evan Longoria, 3B, TB

Round 2

Stephen: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT

Kenny: Tim Lincecum, SP, SF

JJ: Hunter Pence, OF, HOU

Ryan: Jay Bruce, OF, CIN

Mike: Scott Elbert, SP, LAD

Jason: Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL

Zach: Andrew Miller, SP, DET

Jesse: Andy LaRoche, 3B, LAD

Scott: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL

Nik: Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL

Matt: Luke Hochevar, SP, KC

Chris: Adam Miller, SP, MIN

Round 3

Chris: Felix Pie, OF, CHC

Matt: Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS

Nik: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI

Scott: Reid Brignac, SS, TB

Jesse: Elijah Dukes, OF, TB

Zach: Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM

Jason: Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD

Mike: Gaby Sanchez, 1B, FLA

Ryan: Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

JJ: Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL

Kenny: Jose Tabata, OF, NYY

Stephen: Donald Veal, SP, CHC

Round 4

Stephen: Chris Iannetta, C, COL

Kenny: Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE

JJ: Josh Fields, 3B, CHW

Ryan: Billy Rowell, 3B, BAL

Mike: Adam Lind, TOR, OF

Jason: Colby Rasmus, OF, STL

Zach: Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS

Jesse: Travis Snider, OF, TOR

Scott: William Inman, SP, MIL

10.Nik: James Loney, 1B, LAD

Matt: Eric Hurley, SP, TEX

Chris: Brandon Erbe, SP, BAL

Round 5

Chris: Erick Aybar, SS, LAA

Matt: Adam Jones, OF, SEA

Nik: Jeff Niemann, SP, TB

Scott: Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA

Jesse: Philip Humber, SP, NYM

Zach: Lars Anderson, 1B, BOS

Jason: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL

Mike: Ryan Sweeney, OF, CWS

Ryan: Jacob McGee, SP, TB

JJ: Chris Volstad, SP, FLA

Kenny: Angel Villalona, 3B, SF

Stephen: Eric Campbell, INF, ATL

Round 6

Stephen: Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN

Kenny: Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY

JJ: Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI

Ryan: Brad Lincoln, SP, PIT

Mike: Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA

Jason: Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC

Zach: Mark Pawalek, SP, CHC

Jesse: Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY

Scott: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD

10.Nik: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS

Matt: Michael Bowden, SP, BOS

Chris: Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL

Round 7

Chris: Chris Carter, 1B, ARI

Matt: Bryce Cox, RP, BOS

Nik: Daniel Bard, SP, BOS

Scott: Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL

Jesse: Daric Barton, 1B, OAK

Zach: Jeff Clement, C, SEA

Jason: Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA

Mike: Russ Ohlendorf, SP, NYY

Ryan: Dexter Fowler, OF, COL

JJ: Jeff Baker, OF, COL

Kenny: Dellin Betances, SP, NYY

Stephen: Franklin Morales, SP, COL

Round 8

Stephen: Chris Parmelee, OF, MIN

Kenny: Ian Stewart, 3B, COL

JJ: Billy Sadler, SP, SF

Ryan: Pat Neshek, RP, MIN

Mike: John Danks, SP, CHW

Jason: Miguel Montero, C, ARI

Zach: Wade Davis, SP, TB

Jesse: Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX

Scott: Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF

Nik: Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB

Matt: Micah Owings, SP, ARI

Chris: Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC

Round #1:  Pick: Chris Young:  Rationale:  In the first round, I wanted a player that was ready to step in and play.  Our keeper system is such that you get the guy for free for three years, or two after the season in which they lose rookie status.  I like the speed and power combination that Young provides.  Arizona will be better than they were last year, and so he should have more RBI opportunities and score more runs.  That said, the west coast parks suppress power.  In his first season, I'll settle for a 4th outfielder numbers from him and think he'll get 15-15 at  least, and 20-20 probably.  
    I also considered:  Tim Lincecum.  I had him down as the best pitching prospect for a 5X5 league.  I didn't him take because of two reasons:  A) It didn't keep with my philosophy to lock up "a sure thing" in the first round and B) My experience, which proved true later on, is that pitching prospects are always available in later rounds.  
Round #2:  Pick: Ryan Braun.  Rationale:  20-20 potential again.  I must admit that I've man crushed Ryan Braun since I saw him play last year at Huntsville.  The guy can flat out hit, and hit for power.  He runs the bases well, picks his spots to steal, and on top of that, he's a third baseman!  (Ok, maybe not for much longer.)  I can tolerate a move to a corner OF position for a 20-20 guy that I believe has a shot at hitting .300.
    I also considered.  Yovani Gallardo, Tulo, and Andy LaRoche.  The will he or won't he develop power scared me off Tulo very early.  Watching the pitching that went and the order it went, I was not wholly convinced that Yovani might bounce back to me.  Pipe dream, probably, but there were a handful of quality pitchers still available, who were only a slight notch below Gallardo.  This became a debate over Andy LaRoche and Ryan Braun.  I read almost every post in which either was mentioned, read and re-read the major sources on each, and then went and consulted a Ouija Board.  (Did you know Ouija is Microsoft's spell checker?  Cultish influence runs DEEEEEEP!)  Finally, I went with Braun because of the better speed and LaRoche's slight injury concerns.  Honestly, this one could have went either way, except for my man crush.

Round #3:  Pick: Clayton Kershaw.  Seriously, do I need to justify this one?  I would say that I was considering others, but I wasn't.  I thanked my lucky stars and ran.  

Round #4:  Pick:  Colby Rasmus:  My other bias is sometimes I try too hard not to look like a homer.  Colby is in the second tier of outfield prospects that should, if they perform as they should, break into A or A- grades next year.  The speed and power combination is just too much to pass up.  Plus, he's only twenty.  I tried to spread this picks out in terms of distance from the majors.  He's the best prospect that was on the board at the time.  I tried to make a case for Travis Snider, but it just wasn't there for me.  

Round #5:  Pick: Salty.  Geez, how the mighty have fallen!  Two years ago, guys were offering ridiculous trades to try to get the number one pick to take Salty.  Now, he falls to round five?  I'm not going to bore you with my thoughts on Salty, but I think he still has it and will probably be traded for some pitching help during the season.  
    I also considered Eric Campbell and Angel Villalona, who both went later in the round.  I though at my position it was too early for  both.  I might regret making that decision.  Also, in about round number 3 I started playing a game with Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Here it accelerated to full steam.  Part of the game was to see how truly low he would go.  Then again, part of me was screaming to take him, hold him in reserve, and trade him to someone when their third baseman goes down for the season.  

Round #6:  Pick:  Eric Patterson.   Brad Lincoln and Morrow disappeared right before my eyes and Patterson was left.  I actually like Patterson a lot, and believe that he will get a call up during the summer to take over second, when Jacque Jones is dealt, probably again for pitching.  See round five for my who I thought about taking, because Kouz was still there and I was seriously considering him.  Why didn't I move on him?  Patterson plays second, which there aren't that many great fantasy second baggers out there, so there is low requirement to be a valueable fantasy player.  Possible .300 hitter and 30 steals exceeds that requirement by juuuuust a smidge. Plus, I have Braun, why do I need another third baseman.

Round #7:  Pick:  Taylor Tankersley.   I am so smart, S-M-R-T.  I had been plotting this pick since at least the fourth round, again playing fantasy chicken.  Unlike Kouz, I thought I might actually pull this one off because Tankersley is not on the top 100 of ANY prospect list, and probably doesn't deserve to be.  However, he's going to have a legitimate shot at closing in Florida, and that's worth a seventh round pick for me.  I'm joking about being so smart, I just thought this was the right time to pull the trigger on a good opportunity.  
    I considered Franklin Morales here, but I'm just scared of Colorado pitchers.  I believe humidors are best for Don Tomas maduros, one of the finest inexpensive cigars you will ever have.  I couldn't take him.
Round #8:  Pick:  Miguel Montero:  At the time of the pick, I typed something like, a catcher with plus power?  I'll take it.  Who else I considered?  I"ll never tell, because at least three guys are still available.  

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