According to Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster 2007, Corey Patterson had a Stolen Base Opportnity percentage of 50%. This stat is equal to (SB+CS)/(BB+Singles). A 50% score basically means he attempts a stolen base 50% of the time he reaches first base. I have a hard time believing that rate is sustainable.
Given Patterson's excellent 2006 fantasy season, he should be a single-digit round draft pick and a $30 player in AL-only keeper leagues. However, Patterson has disappointed at those levels before.
The question I have is whether or not that 50% SBO is sustainable in 2007. Will there be line-up changes that hinder his opportunity to attempt SBs i.e. a high OBP player in front of him? If it is not, then he is likely to disappont in 2007 at his 2006 valuation level.
Are there any other high SB that would fall victim to the same thing?