With the Miami Dolphins 0-8 and coming off their bye, there seems to be little reason not to use the time off to prepare 2nd round pick, QB John Beck, for his professional debut when the team returns to action against the Buffalo Bills in Week Ten. However, head coach Cam Cameron isn't ready to let current QB, Cleo Lemon, return to the back-up role he previously filled. In spite of that, The question remains. How well will John Beck do given the team is suits-up journeyman RBs and an under-achieving receiving core led by the venerable Marty Booker.
Until he takes actual game snaps, Beck is only as good as his projections. Fortunately, the team at Pro Football Prospectus does not shy away from doing that for rookie QBs. While reviewing their information, keep in mind the team had Ronnie Brown and Chris Chambers as members of the team when the analysis was done.
First from PFP's player projection:
While WR Chris Chambers is no longer with the team, rookie 1st rounder Ted Ginn Jr still has the speed to be a deep target. Ginn would appear to be an even worse pick given PFP's assessment of Beck's strengths and weaknesses. The 2007 projection, given a 16-game season, is 3090 yards on a 61.7% completion percentage with a poor Net Yards per Attempt of 5.6 and 16 TDs and 12 INTs. While the 12 INTs are acceptable, nothing else is. For example, The 61.7% would rank around 20th amongst this year's passers.
There is hope, though. David Lewin provides a more upbeat assessment based on a system that relies upon two stats - college completion percentage and college games started. He writes:
Isn't that really all Dolphins fans want from John Beck - that he do better than Brady Quinn?