Draft Strategy: Buying Early Stats

by faketeams on Apr 2, 2008 5:56 AM EDT in Baseball Comment 3 comments

With regular season underway and one more draft to complete, an NL-Only 4x4, I take note of any performances that occur before the draft and decide whether I want to buy that good or bad performance. Last night, the St. Louis Cardinal's big off-season signing, SP Kyle Lohse, threw five shutout innings againt the NL Champion Colorado Rockies.

Should I go an extra couple of dollars at the auction because I know those five scoreless innings will look good in my pitching ratios once the 2008 fantasy baseball season in live?

What about the opposite case? After a scoreless 1st inning agains the Cleveland Indians on Monday, White Sox SP Mark Buerhle could not get three outs in the 2nd before allowing seven earned runs. Should a fantasy player bid a few dollars less because he doesn't want to pay for that horrendous start?

Is purchasing good or bad early season performances something that should be done at a premium or discount? Does it matter if that player is an established one or an unknown?

These are some of the questions I ask myself before every draft that occurs after the start of the regular season.

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drafting in season

You should never take an early season account overboard unless it is the most incredible start ever, say 5-6 HR w/20 RBI. One start from a mediocre pitcher would never influence me (Lohse). Don't forget the Littlefield Effect from the original Rotisserie book. He had 2 saves in the first week and the bidding went high on the new closer. At the end of the season he had...2 saves. A tick upward is the most you should attribute to 1/26th of a player's stats.

by TheStoneCop on Apr 2, 2008 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

NL 4x4 up-coming draft

Eric,
With Lohse , you should be ok as a 4th starter for your team. Everything appears to be trending upward for him. I think that the only true reliable stat for spring training or early on in the season, like now is ... SB's.
PS
If someone no-shows or cancels, I'm in!

Bob (5150bosox)

by 5150bosox on Apr 2, 2008 8:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs