Projected 2008 Standings

by faketeams on Mar 30, 2008 7:49 AM EDT in Baseball Comment 9 comments

Does all this player analysis for fantasy baseball lead to better projections of real life team performances? I do not know, but I am willing to put my guesses to paper and allow that judgment to be made.

I have included a comment next to each team to explain why I believe each team will finish where. Most are really based on non-fantasy considerations. I think.

Let the games begin!

AL EAST	NOTE
Boston Red Sox	Better defense wins out
New York Yankees	Poor defense leads to a second-place finish
Toronto Blue Jays	All Pitching/Good defense can't go any further
Tampa Bay Rays	They'll be better. Elliot Johnson making the team negates the Longoria fumbling
Baltimore Orioles	Worse than the Giants?
AL CENTRAL	NOTE
Cleveland Indians	Thank God for the Tigers bullpen
Detroit Tigers	Blake Street Bombers 2008 Edition
Kansas City Royals	Hillman will synergize with the Gordon and Butler breakouts
Minnesota Twins	A good hitting core with a deeper staff has them in 4th.
Chicago White Sox	A scary back-end rotation with it's best power hitter leading off.
AL WEST	NOTE
Seattle Mariners	If a couple arms step-up in the bullpen, this won't be close
Los Angeles Angels	Not enough starters and the offense is still weak on power
Texas Rangers	An exciting club in 2008. Would kill for the White Sox rotation.
Oakland A's	Fire sales and Play-off contention in the same year? I'll bet against that
NL EAST	NOTE
New York Mets	#s 1-4 in the starting rotation too good
Philadelphia Phillies	Not enough starting pitching
Atlanta Braves	Despite the black hole in CF, the offense is very good.
Washington Nationals	No pitching even if Lastings Milledge makes the Mets rue dumping him
Florida Marlins	Thank God for the Giants and Orioles
NL CENTRAL	NOTE
Chicago Cubs	Too much bullpen strength
Milwaukee Brewers	Not enough bullpen strength
Cincinnati Reds	Have you seen the three teams below them?
Houston Astros	Too much offense to finish behind the Cards and Pirates
St Louis Cardinals	Still better than the Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates	Thank God for the Giants, Orioles and Marlins
NL WEST	NOTE
Arizona Diamondbacks	Offense improvement over last season will make this less of a race then others think
Colorado Rockies	Too much offense and defense
Los Angeles Dodgers	The rotation is not great and Juan Pierre will play
San Diego Padres	Not enough offense
San Francisco Giants	Thank God for Cain and Lincecum

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Braves

I was listening to Mark Patrick and Buck Martinez on XM on Friday, and they both picked the Braves to win the NL East. I think they both liked the D-backs...not sure.
They both loved the Braves lineup, said the Phillies need more pitching.
As far as the D-backs, Lyon is not Valverde and if the offense sputters as it did last year, they will not win as much in the tight NL West. Will their bullpen be as good as it was last year?
Colorado was a .500 team till mid September last year.
LA has a healthy Furcal in his walk year, and an improved outfield of Ethier, Jones and Kemp all season, assuming Torre makes the right decision. Yes, Pierre will get his ABs, but not as a starter. He batted 7th and 8th the last two games. The LA rotation top to bottom is better than the Rockies and D-Backs, and could get much better should Kershaw get his call-up.
I agree with the Cubs selection, but think the Brewers will give them a nice run if their bullpen comes together.

raygu

by raygu on Mar 30, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Questions-NL West edition

D-backs-how will Haren pitch in a hitters park-he gave up alot of HRs last year? Will Drew and Jackson finally reach their potential? Do they have a leadoff hitter?
Rockies-are they the team that won 21 of 22? Can Tulo repeat his offensive performance from last year?
Dodgers-who plays LF? Can Kuroda pitch in the majors or will he be the next Kaz Ishii? Do they get any production from 3b?
Padres-can Hoffmann anchor the bullpen for another year? Where does the offense come from?
Giants-can they not lose 100 games?

raygu

by raygu on Mar 30, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Torre isn't so bad afterall.....

From TJ's blog....

Ethier is Dodgers left fielder
Joe Torre broke the news to Juan Pierre this morning. ``He just said `OK,' but I know he is disappointed, and that's fine,'' Torre said. ``You don't want a guy sitting on your bench who just accepts being on the bench.'' Torre said JP will be a regular bench player, pinch hitting, etc. ``Before it's all said and done, we're going to get contributions from a lot of people,'' Torre said.

"Torre said JP will be a regular bench player...". I love the sound of that....nice decision by Torre.
Torre also mentioned there may be a trade soon....maybe Pierre will be traded to a team that needs a leadoff hitter? Doesn't Lou need a leadoff hitter and CFer?

raygu

by raygu on Mar 30, 2008 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

here's how I see it

Here's the way I see things shaking out this year.

EAST-
Mets
Phils
Braves
Marlins
Nats

Central-
Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Pittsburgh
Astros

West-
D-backs
Padres
Rockies
Dodgers
Giants

Lots of "ifs" and "buts" above. If the Reds have a few of their prospects come through they could contend deep into the year. The bottom three in the Central could all be interchanged.

The West is the most interesting as there are three quality clubs. The D-backs finished with 90 wins in 2007 but were outscored 732-712. That would give them a Pythagorean of only 79 wins which, of course, would be a sub .500 record.

Can a healthy Randy Johnson and the addition of Dan Haren make up the difference? Maybe so but you also have to factor in the growth of Chris, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds. Any of those guys could also have set-backs in 2008. And the Big Unit could be on the operating table at any second. So the West will not be handed to them. If they falter the Pads will be right there to take the prize. And I guess the same could be said of the Rockies.

by acr on Mar 30, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

on paper

LA vs Arizona

Ethier vs. Byrnes-Byrnes
Jones vs. Young-Jones
Kemp vs Upton-Kemp...right now
Dewitt vs Reynolds-Reynolds
Furcal vs Drew-Furcal...a healthy Furcal
Kent vs Hudson-Hudson
Loney vs Jackson-Even
Martin vs Snyder-Martin

Rotation
Webb vs Penny-Webb
Haren vs Lowe-Haren
Billz vs RJ-Billz, RJ too injury prone
Kuroda vs Davis-eh....even?
Loaiza vs Owings-even

Bullpen
Saito vs Lyon-Saito
Broxton vs Pena/Qualls-Broxton

on paper, to me, LA has a better lineup and bullpen. Arizona the better 1-2, but after that, give a slight edge to LA.
Does anyone see it differently? Am I looking through my blue-colored glasses?

raygu

by raygu on Mar 31, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some disagreement

I'd take Young over Jones, and Owings over Loaiza. Those tow changes tilt it into AZ's favor. This assumes RJ only start a few handfuls of games. If he somehow starts 20, I think he will be even with Billz.

by faketeams on Mar 31, 2008 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can't disagree too much

is it because Owings can rake at the plate? lol...Loaiza may not hold down the job too long. Should Kershaw get the call instead of PArk, LA gets the nod at #5. But I did read that LA wants Kershaw to get some innings starting in AA, but plan to put him in the bullpen to limit his innings also.
What about Laroche vs Reynolds? I say Reynolds initially, but think Laroche can get on base more with a better avg.

raygu

by raygu on Mar 31, 2008 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reynolds

LaRoche takes walks and likely plays a better defense, but until he shows he can hit major league pitching, I'd have to go with Reynolds has already shown hit can hit.

by faketeams on Mar 31, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

one thing

I would have to give Kuroda the edge over Davis until the full extent of Davis thyroid cancer is determined. He may be on the recovery shelf for a month or so.

I think a couple other areas that need to be considered are 1. players who are injured now that may contribute later and 2. minor league call-ups available.

I guess both teams have a few guys out. But if Nomar can stay healthy (big if) then that surely helps the Dodgers' chances. Plus the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw available (not sure if LV or AA) who they can call up if need be. I am not sure who all the D-backs have immediately available on the farm pitching wise except for Max Scherzer.

by acr on Mar 31, 2008 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs