2008 Fantasy Baseball Elite SP Rankings: Keeper League Draft Values

by faketeams on Feb 16, 2008 7:06 AM EST in Baseball Comment 9 comments

I admit to being slightly anti-pitcher. As a group, pitchers seem so unpredictable. Who recalls Cardinal's SP Chris Carpenter's ADP last season It was 29, and he was the second pitcher taken after Johan Santana (6 OA). I againm admit to some fear of wasting valuable $$$ on pitchers.

As a result, I typically don't over-spend on SP even the elite ones. Last year, I made an exception and went to $28 on Angels' ace, John Lackey. That worked out as well as anyone could expect. The question is whether or not I repeat that venture this year.

Regardless of the effort to overcome my fear, here is the list of elite SP as I see them for AL- and NL-only auction keeper leagues. I will follow-up with mid-tier ones and then the single-digit group.

Which pitcher did I miss, if any, that should be $20+?

AL-Only Elite SP Draft Values:

$30+	Josh Beckett	Erik Bedard
$20-29	Roy Halladay	Scott Kazmir	Justin Verlander	CC Sabathia
	John Lackey	Daisuke Matzusaka	Felix Hernandez
	AJ Burnett

NL-Only Elite SP Draft Values:

$30+	Johan Santana	Jake Peavy	Brandon Webb
$20-29	Dan Haren	John Smoltz	Carlos Zambrano	Aaron Harang
	Roy Oswalt	Brad Penny	Cole Hamels	Chris Young

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Penny

For the NL side, Penny stands out as the least likely to repeat that value. I wouldn't pay that much for him.

by Xavier. on Feb 17, 2008 1:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

why not?

everyone said the same thing last year and he won 16 games with a low 3 era. He has a much better lineup behind him this year with a healthy Furcal, Andruw, Kemp and Loney all year, and hopefully Laroche at 3b....resulting in a better bench.

raygu

by raygu on Feb 17, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My opinion

No doubt the LA lineup is better this year, but there's no way a low 3 ERA is supported by Penny's skills. I'm not trying to predict wins (it's a silly pursuit), but I see a considerably worse post-ASB half for three years running and I'm not convinced he's valued correctly. And a 1.31 WHIP isn't exactly stellar. His K rate dropped last year, his walk rate rose, and he had an unreal 9 HR allowed in over 200 innings. You really believe he'll keep the ball in the park that much? Sure, Penny has great stuff when he's on, put he's too inconsistent to pay top dollar for.

by Xavier. on Feb 17, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good point

the k's were down and bbs up. But one thing he did do last year that he had not done in previous years was to not rely on his fast ball as much, and not look to blow hitters away as much. His 2006 All star game appearance where he struck out the side really got into his head.
Honeycutt worked with him to use his other pitches more.
He did get hit around in the 2nd half, but still had 26 quality starts, up from 16 in 2006.
I am not saying he is better than the other guys in his tier except for Young.

raygu

by raygu on Feb 17, 2008 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Looking at Eric's next tier

I would probably take Myers, Cain, Lincecum, Gallardo, and maybe even Pedro before Penny. They have more upside, in my mind, and Penny seems likely to regress. In a 5x5 league I'd prefer Young as well. For some of those younger guys, I'd bump them up in a keeper league when you factor in age. But I've been wrong before....

by Xavier. on Feb 17, 2008 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pedro?

he'll be lucky to make 25 starts this year....imho. Penny is better than Myers, Cain is on a very bad SF team, as is Lincecum. Lincecum and Gallardo are very talented though.
I wouldn't disagree as much with Gallardo, but Penny is more valuable than the other 4. Myers is Penny-lite...more K's, but worse era and whip.

raygu

by raygu on Feb 17, 2008 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Okay, maybe not Pedro

Pedro's a stretch, I admit, but that's how little I think of Penny in an NL-only 5x5....

As I said above, I'm not drafting for wins, since they're unpredictable. I'm looking at base skills. As I look at the numbers, Myers has had a better WHIP than Penny 3 years in a row (1.21, 1.30, 1.28 vs. 1.29, 1.38, 1.31), along with the bundles of K's. Plus Myers had a better ERA in '05 and '06. If anything, the numbers suggest that Penny is a Myers-lite....

Your position strikes me as pretty reasonable, but I believe you are relying too much on wins in your rankings. (And, dare I say it, your Dodgers bias?)

by Xavier. on Feb 17, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

could be

I honestly didn't look at Myer's stats....went on memory....which failed me....my bad.
I agree with your point on wins...but 16 wins two years in a row is not a fluke. How many pitchers can you say have accomplished that? And now he has a better lineup behind him, as well a better defensive club with Andruw in CF and Laroche at 3b.

raygu

by raygu on Feb 17, 2008 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs