Carlos Pena: What Can We Expect In 2008

by faketeams on Jan 24, 2008 6:41 AM EST in Baseball

Every time Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder are talked about as 1st round picks, I think of another 40+ HR 1B from 2007, Carlos Pena. A look at the stats of all the HR hitters in 2007, with their current ADP, shows Pena to be under-appreciated. After all there were just five 40+ HR hitters in 2007. Even in 2005 and 2006 there were just 9 and 11, respectively.

Player	HR	SB	RBI	R	AVG	ADP
Rodriguez Alex	54	24	157	143	0.312	1
Fielder Prince	50	2	119	109	0.288	12
Dunn Adam	40	9	106	101	0.264	42
Pena Carlos	46	1	121	99	0.282	62
Howard Ryan	47	1	136	94	0.268	11

From this data, one can only conclude that Pena's converts are mostly located in the Tampa Bay front office as evidenced by the three-year/$24.125MM deal he was just gven. FWIW, Pena's salary increases from $6MM in 2008 to $8MM in 2009 and $10.125MM in 2010. Does that signal Rays' management disbelief in Pena's 2007 season?

A look at the 18 players who have homered 40 or more times at least once in the past three seasons doesn't offer a lot of hope that Carlos Pena will be able to repeat his 40+ HR performance. Just six players have accomplished the task in two of the last three seasons, and only Adam Dunn has done it in all three years.

If one only looks at the past two increasingly PED-deterred seasons, only Ryan Howard can be included in Adam Dunn's exclusive club. I have no doubt Howard would have hit 40 in his rookie season if he began the year with the Phillies instead of spending the first half of the year in AAA.

	2005					2006					2007
Player	HR	SB	RBI	R	AVG	HR	SB	RBI	R	AVG	HR	SB	RBI	R	AVG
Konerko Paul	40	0	100	98	0.283	35	1	113	97	0.313	31	0	90	71	0.259
Ortiz David	47	1	148	119	0.3	54	1	137	115	0.287	35	3	117	116	0.332
Ramirez Manny	45	1	144	112	0.292	35	0	102	79	0.321	20	0	88	84	0.296
Dunn Adam	40	4	101	107	0.247	40	7	92	99	0.234	40	9	106	101	0.264
Teixeira Mark	43	4	144	112	0.301	33	2	110	99	0.282	30	0	105	86	0.306
Jones Andruw	51	5	128	95	0.263	41	4	129	107	0.262	26	5	94	83	0.224
Lee Derrek	46	15	107	120	0.335	8	8	30	30	0.286	22	6	82	91	0.316
Pujols Albert	41	16	117	129	0.33	49	7	137	119	0.331	32	2	104	100	0.327
Rodriguez Alex	48	21	130	124	0.321	35	15	121	113	0.29	54	24	157	143	0.312
Beltran Carlos	16	17	78	83	0.266	41	18	116	127	0.275	33	23	112	93	0.276
Berkman Lance	24	4	82	76	0.293	45	3	136	95	0.315	34	7	102	95	0.278
Dye Jermaine	31	11	86	74	0.274	44	7	120	103	0.315	28	2	78	68	0.254
Hafner Travis	33	0	108	94	0.305	42	0	117	100	0.308	24	1	100	80	0.266
Howard Ryan	22	0	63	52	0.288	58	0	149	104	0.313	47	1	136	94	0.268
Soriano Alfonso	36	30	104	102	0.268	46	41	95	119	0.277	31	19	66	95	0.298
Thome Jim	7	0	30	26	0.207	42	0	109	108	0.288	35	0	96	79	0.275
Fielder Prince	2	0	10	2	0.288	28	7	81	82	0.271	50	2	119	109	0.288
Pena Carlos	18	0	44	37	0.235	1	0	3	3	0.273	46	1	121	99	0.282

The question is what can be expected of Pena in 2008? Certainly, fewer than 40 HRs seems reasonable based on recent past history. The magnitude is more difficult to ascertain. However, to get an idea I calculated the average change from the 40+ HR season to the next one. There were 19 seasons out of a possible 32. (Fielder and Pena do not have a follow-up season to measure their 2007 against, and Derrek Lee's effort to repeat was derailed by an injury.)

The average change was -19.4%. Using that figure means a projection of 37 HRs (46*(1-.194)) would not be unreasonable. The Tampa Bay Rays faith will not be tested if Pena hits 37 HRs next season, would it?

NOTE: FWIW, only two hitters increased their totals following a 40+ HR season. David Ortiz and Albert Pujols increased their 2005 HR totals by 14.9% and 19.5% respectively.

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