What is 2007 ROY Dustin Pedroia worth? To get an idea, I looked at the players who produced similarly in HR and SB last year. For this purposes I included just middle infield qualifiers who had between 5 and 10 HRs and SBs.
Here are the comparables in 2007.
1. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
2. Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle Mariners
3. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Maicer Izturis, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves
6. Chris Burke, Arizona Diamondbacks
In one league only formats, Pedroia's compadres are single-digit salaried players. In mixed leagues, either the comps are final-rounds-of-the-draft selections or permanent free agent residents.
Given we are trying to predict next season's efforts based on last season's work, I decided to go back to 2005 and 2006, run the same screens and look at those players and their follow-up seasons through 2007.
In 2005, there were 11 players who had HR and SB totals between 4 and 10. Of those, just Edgar Renteria improved those figures into double digits in the following seasons. Just two other players, Marlon Anderson and Jack Wilson, got either category into double digits in either following year.
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||
Player | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG |
Anderson Marlon | 7 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 0.264 | 12 | 4 | 38 | 43 | 0.297 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 0.295 |
Gonzalez Alex | 5 | 5 | 45 | 45 | 0.264 | 9 | 1 | 50 | 48 | 0.255 | 16 | 0 | 55 | 55 | 0.272 |
Graffanino Tony | 7 | 7 | 38 | 68 | 0.309 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 68 | 0.274 | 9 | 0 | 30 | 34 | 0.238 |
Grudzielanek Mark | 8 | 8 | 59 | 64 | 0.294 | 7 | 3 | 52 | 85 | 0.297 | 6 | 1 | 51 | 70 | 0.302 |
Infante Omar | 9 | 8 | 43 | 36 | 0.222 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 35 | 0.277 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 0.271 |
Mackowiak Rob | 9 | 8 | 58 | 57 | 0.272 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 0.29 | 6 | 4 | 38 | 40 | 0.264 |
Perez Neifi | 9 | 8 | 54 | 59 | 0.274 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 31 | 0.243 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0.172 |
Renteria Edgar | 8 | 9 | 70 | 100 | 0.276 | 14 | 17 | 70 | 100 | 0.293 | 12 | 11 | 57 | 87 | 0.332 |
Scutaro Marco | 9 | 5 | 37 | 48 | 0.247 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 52 | 0.266 | 7 | 2 | 41 | 49 | 0.26 |
Spivey Junior | 7 | 9 | 24 | 37 | 0.232 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wilson Jack | 8 | 7 | 52 | 60 | 0.257 | 8 | 4 | 35 | 70 | 0.273 | 12 | 2 | 56 | 67 | 0.296 |
In 2006, there were just seven middle infielders to score HR and SB totals between 4 and 10. Amongst these seven, two players increased either of the stats to double digits - Bobby Crosby stole 10 bases in 2007, and Aaron Hill hit 17 HRs.
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||
Player | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG | HR | SB | RBI | R | AVG |
Barmes Clint | 10 | 6 | 46 | 55 | 0.289 | 7 | 5 | 56 | 57 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.216 |
Cedeno Ronny | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0.3 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 51 | 0.245 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 0.203 |
Crosby Bobby | 9 | 0 | 38 | 66 | 0.276 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 42 | 0.229 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 40 | 0.226 |
Everett Adam | 11 | 21 | 54 | 58 | 0.248 | 6 | 9 | 59 | 52 | 0.239 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 0.232 |
Graffanino Tony | 7 | 7 | 38 | 68 | 0.309 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 68 | 0.274 | 9 | 0 | 30 | 34 | 0.238 |
Hill Aaron | 3 | 2 | 40 | 49 | 0.274 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 70 | 0.291 | 17 | 4 | 78 | 87 | 0.291 |
Scutaro Marco | 9 | 5 | 37 | 48 | 0.247 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 52 | 0.266 | 7 | 2 | 41 | 49 | 0.26 |
Recent comparables based solely on position-eligibility and HR and SB screens do not bode well for the future of Dustin Pedroia. Whether those are representative screens, I do not know, but I feel comfortable not gambling on a huge improvement in 2008.