16-Team Draft

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 6:28 AM EST in Baseball Comment 15 comments

Update [2007-3-11 9:43:41 by Eric Hz]: I have the 11th pick. The Pre-ranker results are in the Comment section. I would be pleased with the results - with the exception of Bob Wickman in the 11th.

I have a 16-team draft at 11 o'clock this morning. I will attempt to comment as it occurs. Given the number of teams involved, I used my FT Autodraft/ADP Pre-Ranker tool to get a general idea, based on Yahoo! rankings, what my selections would look like given my draft spot. Here is a link that will open it in Excel.

Here is an example of what I look at to see what could happen with my pre-ranked list if I got the 14th pick.

# Teams	16
Draft Spot	14

Rd	OA	Player
1	14	Manny Ramírez
2	19	Chris Carpenter
3	46	Brandon Webb
4	51	Brian Roberts
5	78	Julio Lugo
6	83	JJ Putz
7	110	Randy Johnson
8	115	Mike Mussina
9	142	Adam LaRoche
10	147	Jeff Francoeur
11	174	Jorge Cantú
12	179	Jason Varitek
13	206	Kevin Millwood
14	211	AJ Burnett
15	238	Carlos Quentin
16	243	Troy Tulowitzki
17	270	Vicente Padilla
18	275	Clay Hensley
19	302	Jesse Crain
20	307	Boof Bonser
21	334	Miguel Montero

I don't use this the get the exact roster I want. I use it to see when I would begin getting players I did not. Specifically, i would look at the players ranked around the 51st selection (Brian Roberts) abd the 78th (Julio Lugo). Also, the players available in the 83rd to 115th area. Randy Johnson seems too high, and I am not inclined to grab a closer that early. An adjustment to the pre-rankings would have me dropping closers another 30 or so spots and dropping Randy johnson further.

By doing this, I can have the autodraft I want to see minutes after it is completed. there is no perfect way to predict an autodraft. you can only be aware of some different possibilities.

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Pre-Ranker Results

# Teams	16
Draft Spot	11
Rd	OA	Player
1	11	David Wright
2	22	Grady Sizemore
3	43	Rafael Furcal
4	54	Johnny Damon
5	75	Aaron Harang
6	86	Prince Fielder
7	107	Adrián Béltre
8	118	Erik Bedard
9	139	Freddy Sánchez
10	150	Orlando Cabrera
11	171	Bob Wickman
12	182	Curtis Granderson
13	203	Shea Hillenbrand
14	214	Ted Lilly
15	235	Chris Burke
16	246	BJ Upton
17	267	Luis González
18	278	Emil Brown
19	299	Salomón Torres
20	310	John Maine
21	331	Tim Lincecum

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Loop

I took Carl Crawford at 11 versus the predicted David Wright. 3B is fairly deep. 50 SB hitters with 15/80/.300 are not. I did grab Grady Sizemore with the 22nd overall. I'll likely ignore the outfield for several rounds.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

3rd+

Players I want are falling now. I had hoped to land Michael Young with my 3rd round selection. he went 6 picks prior. I took Konerko. I wanted Bill Hall next. He went in the 3rd rd - two picks after mine. I ended-up taking Brian McCann. I was going to grab Robinson Cano, but he went immediately before my selection. Either are something of a reach, but 20 picks are going to pass before it gets back to me.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shift

Normally, I wait until my 6th pick to shift towards building my staff. I have decided to start with the 5th. The depth in the infield positions right now is impressive. I am really enjoying the two OF selections. So much is open to me now - no need to particpate in runs on OFs or SBs and with Yahoo! settings allowing no CR or MI, there are going to be quailty players to grab at 3B and SS. With my 5th pick, I showed that I can't let go of favorites and took Matt Cain. With ten picks following the Cain one, six pitchers were grabbed. I selected Jeremy Bonderman with my 6th rd pick, 86th overall. I feel fortunate. He was the top-ranked pitcher left, but the team before me took Richie Sexson.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Runs

There was a run on the hotter younger players - josh barfield and Stephen Drew, Chris and Delmon young, Cole Hamels and Jered Weaver. With my 8th rd selection, I took Jason Schmidt. With only a minute or two to decide, do I take a closer or another solid SP? Do I grab a sleeper 2B or 3B? Again, 20 players will be slected before I choose again. I'm only going to get one fo the three young hitters left - Alex Gordon, Ian Kinsler or Howie Kendrick. I took Kendrick. Coming back, I will hope for a good closer. if one isn't there, I'll go the Seth McClung route and grab the smelliest ones a couple picks later.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

9th and 10th

Ian Kinsler is off the board. He was selected 130th overall (2nd pick 9th round). I can grab a good closer with my 9th selection and took Takashi Saito. The 100+ strikeouts is too good to ignore.

Coming back, I am considering grabbing Alex Gordon for cache, but there are a lot of very good ones on the board who are more certain to produce. Instead, I went back to starting pitching and took Barry Zito in hopes he improves in the move to the NL Alan Schwarz' calc's better hold!

When the draft comes back, I am considering picking through the relievers. My 11th round pick will be the 162nd overall - that translates into the 16th round in 10-team leagues and the 14th round in 12-team ones.

I can also see what has fallen through the cracks in the OF, too.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

11th and 12th

There are a lot 3B-eligibles available, including Alex Gordon. I expect he'll be gone as rosters begin to be filled with favorites. Surprisingly, Barry Bonds hasn't been taken. Should I hand cuff Saito with Broxton? Nah. I took Octavio Dotel, a pitcher who is the closer and has no viable alternative in the Royals bullpen. When it comes back, I will look for the best back-up closer/80+ strikeout reliever - Akinori otsuka, Broxton, Zumaya. I prefer Broxton because he is the back-up, will K more than 80 and is a handcuff. And took him. The worst closers will be available towards the end fo the draft. I am going to begin with best players available. SS, 3B, OF, UT still need to be filled.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

13th and 14th

Alex Gordon has lasted through 190 or so picks. Maybe there are a lot of autodrafts because Gordon is ranked in the 900s by YHOO. I'm not going to take Gordon with my 13th selection (194th OA), but will consider him on the way back with my 14th pick (205 OA). I took Aubrey Huff. He fills my 3B or OF need and should be close to a 25/100 guy batting 5th for the Orioles. Sadly, Brad Hawpe is taken immediately after my selection. He's a real sleeper that i haven't seen taken so early. In a platoon in 2006 does wonders for a quality hitter's draft value. I took Alex Gordon with my 14th pick and the 224th overall. That looks like it could be very good value.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

15th and 16th

There are only 7 active pitchers in this league. that explains why so many decent ones were still on the board when I took Gordon. However, 6 of the next seven picks were SPs. I'll be targetting pitchers with these next two picks. With my 15th selection, I wanted Daniel Cabrera, but fellow SNer, Camden Chat, took him. I knew this was a likely occurence with him in the league. I decided huff was a better risk than Cabrera. getting both would have been too much to ask without really reaching. I had Ted Lilly and Otsuka in my queue, but both were slected prior to my pick. instead, i grabbed Tampa bay closer Seth mcClung. Chad Orvella is pitching well this spring, but McClung was intentionally converted from a starter to close. Not a bad risk. When it came back to me, I took Jeff Francis - my first big mistake of the draft. I wanted Mark beuhrle, but his precipitous drop in Ks last year combined with his desire to sign an extension now, makes me think he's hurt. Should I have taken Randy Wolf or Adam Loewen?

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

17th and 18th picks

I still need a starting SS. There is very little left. Omar Vizquel is the top-rated one, but I took Dodgers' 3B Wilson Betemit to fill that spot. He'll get 20 HR and qualifies at SS, 2B and 3B in YHOO. I don't agree with it, but I'll take adavnatage of it when I can.

Next up, I want Corey Hart or Chris Burke. After him, I am going to grab whatever SBs I can. I may get both, but I am not counting on that.

Burke made it to me. I suspect others have left the draft room as Geoff Jenkins and Mark Loretta were the preceding two picks. As a bonus, Burke is 2B/OF eligible.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

19th, 20th and 21st picks.

There are a lot of good players still available. Kenny Lofton and Nook logan are going to be very cheap sources of 20+ steals. If Corey Hart is still there, and he will be my 19th pick. I could take Jose Guillen there, but I like Hart as a sleeper 20/20 hitter. That combo is too much of a temptation to resist. I am going to grab Guillen is he makes it back to me. At the 319th pick and batting in the heart of the Mariner's order, he is one of the big steals of the draft. This makes-up some for the Francis selection. I have one pick left, and it will be a back-up closer. Either Kevin Gregg, Scott Linebrink or Brian Wilson. I'd have Matt Linstrom, but he isn't in the YHOO database. Linebrink is the safest bet. After all, who can be had if Joel Piniero doesn't impress in Boston? Shockingly, that was my last pick.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good insight....

Eric:

Before the draft, I do the same thing and look at the level of player that should be available at the given draft number. To get a better sense, I do a range of five, two ahead and two below the guy who happens to have the exact number of the pick.
I grid according to dollar values, even in a draft, non-auction league. It lets me quickly see what's left on the board and where the next drop off occurs. So, let's say that there are three 3Bs that are roughly the same value and only one 2B before a huge drop off, I take the 2B because I can get one of the 3Bs.
One other thing I cannot stress enough is to watch what other teams are drafting, especially when the computer is picking for them. The Yahoo software is funky in that it will fill needs, even if it means taking a guy who is way down the list. For example, if the SS and Util slots are filled, and Jose Reyes is available in the 13th round, it will pass him up and take the highest ranked player at a need spot. You can get great value by watching this, especially if you are near the end.

I took Burke last night in the last round. He's my insurance policy on Ian Kinsler and will be one of four guys competeing for my third outfield spot, along with Murton, Hermedia, and Chris Young. Our league counts OBP instead of Avg. Here's my draft

(3) Johan Santana SP
(22) Travis Hafner Util
(27) Jimmy Rollins SS
(46) Gary Sheffield 1B,OF
(51) Brandon Webb SP
(70) Carlos Delgado 1B
(75) Nick Swisher 1B,OF
(94) Chad Cordero RP
(99) Édgar Rentería SS
(118) Brad Lidge RP
(123) Morgan Ensberg 3B
(142) Brian Fuentes RP
(147) Ian Kinsler 2B
(166) José Valverde RP
(171) Dave Bush SP
(190) Chris B. Young OF
(195) Scott Olsen SP
(214) Russell Martin C
(219) Jeremy Hermida OF
(238) Matt Murton OF
(243) Ted Lilly SP
(262) Akinori Iwamura 3B
(267) Chris Burke 2B,OF

Things got odd last night, as pitching dropped huge throughout the course of the night. I think we had 9 out of 12 GMS drafting live, and for the most part, I would say that they all know what they are doing, as we have played together for five years.

I'll write up a more detailed diary on what happened and post it later tonight. For now, I'm going out to enjoy the nice weather!

by Brock20 on Mar 11, 2007 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Given the extra time of having a weekend late morning draft, I blogged my thinking. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to track the other teams as closely. Hopefully, you can tell I took a little more time that my previous draft comments (many fewer typos and proper capitalization.)

In an OBP league, I am surprised you got Nick Swisher so late especially after taking Delgado the pick prior.

by faketeams on Mar 11, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comparison...

Good draft.

Using BaseballHQ's projections, I show you significantly ahead of me in RBI, BA, W and essentially dead-even in SB and K. Usually, it's a pretty bad sign if I don't dominate every other team using the projections that I used to draft, since - in theory - I was drafting to maximize those projections. :>

by BobbyMac on Mar 12, 2007 5:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs