Vernon Wells

by faketeams on Dec 18, 2006 8:30 PM EST in Baseball

As I read Dayn Perry's assessment of the Vernon Wells extension on FOXSports.com, I was struck by the penultimate sentence:

Considering the overheated market we've seen this winter, this is an eminently defensible decision by Toronto, and if Wells hits as he did this past season, then this could be bargain of the winter.

It caused me to cringe in the memory of the last bubble free agent market where ARod got $252MM, Jeter got $189MM and Manny Ramirez got $160MM. It has been five years, and no one has matched those contracts.

I read Mr. Perry's article after doing some preliminary work on a trade proposal for a $33 Wells in my AL-only keeper league. I do not have a player at tthe same salary so I needed to examine his 2006 season in context of his career numbers. Like Mark DeRosa (to the nth power!), Wells enjoyed a career-season in 2006. In fact, his previous two seasons were of the .270AVG/single-dgit SB variety. Not something I'd try to acquire at $33 in exchange for players $10+ dollars cheaper.

Point? Sometimes fantasy baseball owners need to wipe away some of the hype and act more rationally than the real world conventional wisdom.

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Steals

I just traded for a $26 Beltre with the hope that he can somehow steal all year. See boogeyblog.com for more on steals.

Beltre stole seven bags in April last year finishing with eleven on the season. His career best ever is 18. Beltre is 27 years old and enters his prime year of 28 next season. I figure since I don't want to own a one dimensional player for $40 I best put together a roster full of "15 or more" players.

I think that was the intent of getting that deal done. And, lets face it Gil Meche & the 8th pick in the MLD are relatively worthless. The draft is empty for the most part.

by graboz on Dec 18, 2006 9:09 PM EST reply actions

so.....

if your offered jeter do you take him at his value of last year or his 10 year avg of stealing around 14 a year instead of last years 34 sbs,his career .315 avg instead of his .340 avg? is gary matthews all of a sudden a good hitter at age 32 now? sometimes its ok to give a little extra in a trade to secure someone who would go for more money at the draft then he is now. from everything that was printed before last year started,Wells was one of those age 27 hitting his prime years candidates,and should have even more protection and more rbi chances with a full year from Rios and Frank Thomas protecting him

by cookedricebrown on Dec 18, 2006 10:32 PM EST reply actions

Wells

#8 and Gil Meche in a non-strikeouts league is perfectly acceptable. But what about a $24 Magglio Ordonez for a $33 Vernon Wells? Can Wells be relied upon to steal 17 bases again or hit .300? Both would be necessary to mak-eup for the differnece in salary.

by faketeams on Dec 19, 2006 7:20 AM EST reply actions

a wash

wells vs mags is almost a wash,but wells did have 8 more hr's and is in a much better ballpark to hit for power.Maybe the jays finally gave wells the green light on the base paths last year and will do again in 2007,as 17 out of 21 sbs isnt too bad,then again they might not let him steal with Thomas batting behind him and might just wait for the 2 run hr. Obviously mags knee issues has taken all his speed away, with 1 sb the last 3 years.So if the person has the cap room for the extra 9 bucks and depending on the value of steals and who's available in the draft for steals,Wells seems to have the more upside to contribute in all categorys over a definite in my mind steroid abuser ordonez

by cookedricebrown on Dec 19, 2006 11:35 AM EST reply actions

Except

for AVG. And I would be surprised if Wells ran again to the same extent with Thomas behind him. Obviously, he can't run if he bats behind Thomas, abnd Thomas took a walk..

by faketeams on Dec 19, 2006 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Rob Neyer

From the just-completed chat on ESPN:

Anders (Toronto): Vernon for 7/126. Good, bad, somewhere in between? Rob Neyer: (12:44 PM ET ) If the salaries continue to escalate as they did this winter, it's good almost regardless of what he does on the field. If the salaries settle down somewhat, the contract is somewhere in between. People forget that Wells has been a great player in only two of his six seasons.

by faketeams on Dec 19, 2006 1:14 PM EST reply actions